Study Of Financial Early Warning Model Based On Corporate Governance

The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 led to the global economy into a downturn or recession. China's economy also has been hit hard, the listed company have a rapid decline in sales, it also have trouble in our financing status. Our companies'Financial Crisis break out immediately. How to strengthen the financial crisis management has become a concerned topic in this area. The traditional early-warning system for financial crisis only study the system form Dimension of financial indicators,but,in our country,the economy market is still not perfectjust study from Dimension of financial indicators is not enough,it can't reflect the true financial situation of enterprises.So,with six categories of indicators of corporate governance index, I study the early-warning system of financial crisis from corporate governance.I construct the early-warning system of financial crisis from corporate governance.After introducing the theory of financial crisis and the early-warning system,I Analyze the causes of financial crisis in chemical industry.Discuss the corporate governance and the theory of corporate governance index in detail. This Paper also propose the relationship between corporate governance factors and financial crisis.Finaly,the article select 19 st copanies and 24 non-ST enterprises as the samples of the study in 2008 and 2009.it study from T-1 to T-3 years.It also study Through exploratory analysis, statistically significant analysis, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, logistic regression. And then, a effective early-warning system of financial crisis come out.While constructing the early-warning system of financial crisis,abandon the traditional concept of early warning model for packaging the non-financial index.but add the index into the model one by one.After a series of experiments, construct the effective early-warning system of financial crisis.The results show that the financial crisis early warning system has some ability to predict crisis while only containing financial indicators.with the continued addition of corporate governance indicators, the accuracy of financial crisis early warning system has been upgraded.