Research On Predicting The Returns Volume Of Used Appliances Based On The Policy Of Replacement

The policy of replacement of household electrical appliance not only has the economic effect by the promotion of consumption, but also encourages energy conservation and the development of circular economy by the promotion of electronic waste treatment. With the spread of the policy, people take an active part in it, and we can see that the policy had been achieving the good consequence. However, as the returns volume of used appliances increases, the reverse supply chain of used appliances is getting more and more complex. So, some new problems have taking place and are faced by the members in the entire process. Therefore, the influential factors and prediction of the amount of used appliances are analyzed, which is helpful to recognize and solve problems of the whole process in the policy of replacement of household electrical appliance. Several research works are done as follows:Chapter 1:Current study of the influential factors of the reverse logistics and the prediction method of the logistics capacity are discussed, and then the main researching targets and significance of the paper are presented.Chapter 2:The influential factors of the returns volume of used appliances are analyzed from four areas of product-related factors, social background factors, consumer factors, and "replacement" enterprises. The different roles of these factors are also underlined, including seasonal changes, trend changes, cycle changes and random changes, and the conceptual model of these roles' mechanism is proposed.Chapter 3:The returns volume of used appliances is predicted by the methods of seasonal index, exponential smoothing, grey prediction, and the order of its seasonal changes, trend changes and random changes is clarified. Finally, the combination forecast model of the last three methods is made to get more effective result.Chapter 4:Based on the analysis of last two chapters, measures could be taken by the relative companies, such as appliance vendors, recyclers, processors and appliance manufacturer, based on the policy of replacement of household electrical appliance.Chapter 5:The main conclusions are summarized and the future development is prospected.