Research On Influence Factors And Prediction Of Inbound Tourism Demand In Qinhuangdao

Inbound tourism for a national and regional economic development andcomprehensive strength is very important. It can increase the income of foreign exchangepromote employment, improving the visibility of the city and region. The geographicalposition of Qinhuangdao is superior convenient transportation. rich in tourism resources,but it lags far behind Qingdao, Dalian, near the seaside city in the inbound tourismreception capacity, so the study on the influence factors and the development trend ofinbound tourism demand in Qinhuangdao, has an important guiding significance for thedevelopment of Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand market.First of all, summarize the related literatures at home and abroad, and expound therelated concepts and theories which focus on the inbound tourism. Then the currentsituation of Qinhuangdao inbound tourism is analyzed from inbound tourism supply anddemand aspects.Secondly, Secondly, the main influence factors of inbound tourism demand inQinhuangdao are analyzed qualitatively. Then the paper adopt the double logarithm linearmodel to empirical analysis the main influence factors by using four major sourcecountries——South Korea, Japan, Russia, the Uniter States as research samples. Theresults shows that the macroeconomic variables——source countries’ per capital GDP,relative consumer price index, exchange rate and major emergencies affect the inboundtourism demand in Qinhuangdao in different levels.Again, the paper selects the Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand forecasting indexand builds the prediction model based on BP neural network. Then the paper forecasts thefuture developing trend of Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand according to therelevant data of1991-2011. The results shows that Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demandis going to rise steadily in total, but different source countries share different rate ofincrease in number of inbound tourists. In particular, the Russian tourists to Qinhuangdaoshare the fastest growth rate. Finally, according to the analysis of the influence factors of inbound tourism demandin Qinhuangdao and the prediction of development trend, this paper puts forwardcountermeasures to expand the quality of inbound tourism demand in Qinhuangdao fromaspects of playing the government advantage, focusing on the development of the targetmarket, optimizing tourist consumption structure, improving the inbound tourismreception.