Beijing's Energy Demand And Environment Integration Model And Application

As the capital of China, Beijing is a large city with huge energy consumption. However, Beijing depends heavily on external energy. Future energy supply to Beijing is facing tremendous pressure. Meanwhile, the sources of SO2, NOx and other air pollutants are closely related with energy uses. Environmental problems caused by energy consumption are increasingly serious and greenhouse gas emission reductions will also become a hard constraint for economic development. Therefore, it is important to study and establish a suitable energy demand and environment integration model of Beijing.Firstly, this paper analyzes total energy consumption and its growth rate, the relationship between energy and economic growth, sectoral energy consumption structure, the energy consumption structure of various species and the environmental emissions of major pollutants in Beijing in recent years, and concludes the development trends and characteristics. The results provide actual data support for the establishment of the energy demand and environment integration model. Secondly, reclassify energy consumption sector to be consistent with international energy sector classification, which lays foundation for applying the international common energy model. The energy consumption sectors include primary industry, industry, construction, transport, service and commerce, and household. This paper studies industry and transport in detail. Thirdly, econometric models are used to analyze and forecast some data as the parameters of the energy demand and environment integration model, where time series models are used to forecast the population and the industrial structure and regression models are used to forecast the transport turnover.On the basis of the above study, this paper establishes energy demand and environment integration analysis model based on bottom-up method and LEAP model. It is integrated into LEAP model that the scenarios set by scenario analysis method and the data forecast by econometric models. Then, LEAP-Beijing integration model is established. According to economic and social development and policy outlook, this paper sets baseline scenario, transport scenario and energy-saving scenario. Taking 2007 as the base year, the integration model forecasts energy demand and environmental emissions until 2020, including total energy demand in Beijing, sectoral energy demand, the demand of coal, coke, gasoline, kerosene, diesel oil, fuel oil, LPG, natural gas, heat, electricity and others, and the emissions of CO2,SO2,NOx.The scenario simulation results based on LEAP-Beijing integration model show that, the energy demand structure of various species will be optimized and the percentage of high-quality energy will increase; industry, transport, service and commerce are the main erergy consumption sectors. Under the energy-saving scenario, the growth rate of energy demand will slow down in Beijing, and the target can be finished that carbon dioxide emissions per GDP in 2020 drop 40% to 45% than that in 2007. The study results by the three scenarios analysis can provide decision support for drawing up Beijing's medium and long term energy and environment planning in the transport and energy-saving.Taking Beijing as a case, the study method and the energy demand and environment integration model established by this paper have also reference value to the study of energy demand and environment in other cities.