A Study On The Evaluation, Forecast And Control Of Coordinate Development Of Economy And Environment Of Xinjiang Bazhou

China's growth of GDP has been maintaining 10% over decades since reform and open up to the outside world. China's nominal GDP had exceeded Germany in 2008, became world NO.3. China now is the fastest country in economic growth. The western exploitation policy brings great chances in economic development to XinJiang. But at meanwhile the traditional pattern of economic growth brings some problems such as energy shortage,damage to the ecosystem and pollution, etc.BaZhou is the most important growing pole of southern XinJiang. It makes great sense to exert its driving power in the further process of implement of southern exploitation policy and achieve the coordinate development of economy and environment. The thesis adopts metric methods and multianalysis to analyze the effect between economic growth and environment pollution and evaluates the degree of coordinated development of economy and environment of BaZhou in order to supplement the research on this subject of regional XinJiang. The following are the main content of the thesis.First, in chapter 3 we analyse the relationship between per capita GDP and industrial pollution, and we get the conclusion that: at present the industrial pollution emssions of BaZhou go up with the per capita GDP growth.Secondly, from scale effect, structural effect and technical effect the thesis studies the influence of economic issues on the environment of BaZhou. We can clearly see that the pollution of industry in BaZhou significantly positive relates to the scale and the proportion of the secondary industry, while the technical advance is propitious to decrease the emission of pollution in BaZhou. So, industrial structure adjustment and technical advancement are the keys to solve the problems.Thirdly, the degree of coordination between economy and environment and the degree of coordinated development between economy and environment of BaZhou are evaluated in chapter 4. The results show that BaZhou gets relative good results although the amount of pollution emissions is still increasing. It is mainly because that the government of BaZhou has been making great efforts to handle pollution. From the contrast between economic developing index and the environmental developing index we find that the environmental development of BaZhou lags behind the economic development. So, in the coming phase of development, it is urgent to change the situation that"doing after pollutting"and put the environment development into the first place.Forthly, forecast of the degree of coordinated development between economy and environment of BaZhou is made. From the result we can konw that the degree of coordinated development between economy and environment of BaZhou will reach the primary level (relative to 2020) at 2015, but still far from ideal. So, in the future we need to keep on carring through the scientific concept of development, and making great efforts to realize sustainable development of BaZhou in both economy and environment.