Liaoning Industry Empirical Study Of Carbon Emissions

Liaoning province is rich in natural resources which are good to develop heavy industry. During socialist planned economic period, Liaoning province did great contribution to economic development. However, current Liaoning province economic development face huge challenge, on the one hand, natural resource has been used nearly five decades with very limited resource still left over; on the other hand, new economic direction is high technology joint with sustainable development model.Thus,future sustainable economic and environment development means Liaoning province will focus on reducing carbon emissions and saving energy.This thesis build new carbon emission analysis model using logarithmic mean weight divisia method(LMD), based on Liaoning province carbon emission per person date from 1991 to 2008. The result shows that Liaoning province carbon emission per person has been increased dramatically due to the increased of economics. On the contrary, economic increased should contribute on future industry structure to reach the goal of reducing carbon emission. However, analysis date shows that current energy consumption structure is not work very well to reduce carbon emission in Liaoning. Future develop will focus more on it by using LMD model.Based on the new GM(1,1)model which is built by gray prediction method, compared with Liaoning province's carbon emission date in the last decade, the forecasts result shows that Liaoning province's carbon emission date will go up slightly in this decade. There are two reasons contributed to this: first reason is Liaoning province's industry will still play heavily role in China's future economic development. In other words, the need of contribution to future China GDP development decide that Liaoning province will still focus on industry development in this decade. Thus Liaoning province carbon emission will increase during this decade. Second reason is China future industry structure will be more stable thanks to continue increased GDP economic development. The more economic development, the better industry structure, the less carbon emission.Thus Liaoning province's carbon emission date will go up slightly in this decade.