| In recent years, the problem of water shortage becomes more and more serious because of natural and human factors, and water crisis has been the bottleneck of economic and social development in China. The precondition of achieving sustainable development of human society, economy and environment is to make a detailed analysis of the changes of water resource use. By using the structural decomposition analysis to evaluate the changes of use in relation to water resource, we can find what main factors influence the changes, and then provide scientific stratagem for policy maker. In this paper, taking Gansu province as a research area, we investigate the changes in local water resource use from 1997 to 2002.First of all, briefly introduced the basic concept, principle and calculation method of input-output analysis, and then proposed that input-output model has a defect which can only make a static analysis on certain period of time. On this basic, explained the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) based on input-output model, which can provide a theoretical foundation for studying the changes in water use of Gansu province. Given traditional SDA suffers from the non-uniqueness'problem, so we proposed the path-based method (PBM) to solve this issue, and proposed a methodology using maximum entropy econometrics to estimate the parameter valueθ.Secondly, summarized the economic situation and the status of water use in Gansu province. Analysis showed that Gansu province belongs to economically undeveloped area. It had a slower GDP growth, and decreased quality of economic growth. Meanwhile, the situation of water resource use had changed: the proportion of water use in agriculture and industry had declined, while the proportion of tertiary industry and resident's water use had improved. But agriculture was still the main sector on using water resource.Thirdly, put the water use of the industrial sectors into input-output table in 1997 and 2002. Using the traditional SDA, the average decomposition and PBM analyzed the impact of the local water use with water use intensity, production technology and final demand, and compared the similarity and difference between the three kind of decomposition methods.In this paper, results of the analysis of the changes in water use can be concluded that: 1) traditional SDA suffers from the non-uniqueness'problem, which leads to different results with different decomposition methods. But PBM can cover that gap. It can be seen as a generalization of the existing SDA approaches; 2) there was significant difference between the result of the PBM with additional information and the result of averaging all the traditional SDA approaches (or linear path), the deviations of some departments even exceeded 10%; 3) the contributions of the water use intensity showed that declining water use per unit of gross output would have led to lower local water use in most sectors if nothing else changed; 4) the generally positive results for the production technology effect suggested that the change of production technology would lead to the increase in domestic water consumption, in absence of changes in the level and composition of final demand; 5) the effect of the final demand were positive except animal husbandry, it implied that positive final demand growth would always yield increase domestic water consumption. It is due to the increase of consumption and investment; 6) through the study of how the three factors affect the water consumption, we can find that the cultivation accounted for the largest portion in the contribution of the changes in water consumption. That indicated the domestic water consumption was mainly decided by cultivation in Gansu province.Finally, we summarized the deficiencies of the paper, and proposed the in-depth research in the future work. Pointed out that IPAT equation can be used in the future work to make more detailed and in-depth decomposition. |
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