Research On Sinopec Refining Enterprises Early-warning System To Deal With International Oil Price Risk

For three oil companies of China, international oil price has the biggest influence on Sinopec, and refining sector's performance has the closest relation with international oil price, so this paper chose Sinopec refinery enterprises as object of study. For Sinopec refinery enterprises, on one hand, the purchasing price of crude oil is in accordance with international oil price, on the other hand, product prices remain in a stable and low level according to national policy, thus the price risk will be formed. If the oil prices rise sharply and the national development and reform commission gives a certain of discount and price adjustment does not reach the designated position, just like previous oil prices adjustment, profit of refinery enterprises of Sinopec will not be protected.Under high oil price background, although as national economic backbone state-owned enterprises, Sinopec may enjoy country huge financial subsidies to conceal the refining enterprises'losses, Sinopec refinery enterprises necessarily take measures to optimize the operating and improve efficiency by themselves, but not blindly hiding below country's "umbrella". When the oil price fluctuates fiercely and frequently, whether Sinopec refinery enterprises can minimize the losses when oil prices are not in favor of the enterprise, which is a very important problem. Because of the importance of oil and the wide margin fluctuation of the price, Sinopec refinery enterprises are facing increasing price risk.Therefore, the paper's idea is to construct a information system, called oil price risk forecasting and early-warning management system, which can obtain warning signal in advance and kill oil price risk in the bud by setting up special organization, using proper regulatory instrument, adoptting scientific method and appropriate measures.This article takes analyzing the international oil prices fluctuating characters , influences and international oil price risk to as the starting point; then it establishes oil price fluctuating risk forecasting early-warning management system, in order to predict the price risk; at last, it puts forward the security system of early-warning, including building oil risk management organization, completing international oil price monitoring, i.e. establishing early warning information system, perfecting risk emergency treatment system and structuring long-term mechanism of dissolving oil price fluctuating risk actively, aiming at providing some of reference for sinopec to avoid or reduce oil price fluctuating risk.In addition, many methods such as regression analysis method, the cointegration analysis and grey forecasting method are combined during forecasting and early-warning system establishing process, and verifies the practical applicability of the system with the enterprise specific data, the results demonstrates that the oil price risk forecasting and early-warning system designed by the paper is suitable for Sinopec refinery enterprises.