Study Of Risk Forewarning In Government Project

Government project is an important means to exert function of investment and there are billions of funds to be invested by country. However there are a lot of risks in the process of investment and it is difficult to predict the various risks in advance to provide the forewarning information for decision-makers and to reduce the government losses. Therefore, some theory research and practical probes concerned on risk management and risk forewarning are conducted. The paper focuses on the risk forewarning mechanism in government project and makes the discussion.Based on the historic evolution of risk management and risk forewarning, the paper points out the deficiency of prevenient theory research and practical probe and that risk forewarning mechanism in Chinese government project is still underway, analyzes the conceptions of government project, make the comparative analysis on the methods of risk identification and risk analysis and estimation and chooses the method of gray conjunction analysis to analyze the index of risk forewarning according to the characteristic of lacking data and information in risk forewarning of government project.Aiming at the difference of forewarning emphasis of government project risks in macro and micro, the paper puts forward an view of establish the risk forewarning mechanism on the two levels and establishes the indicator system of risk forewarning in regional and single government project and provides the actual case to be demonstrated and to test the feasibility and operation of selection of index of risk forewarning. The paper makes the discussion of framework of risk forewarning mechanism in government project and puts forward some suggestions for implementing of risk forewarning mechanism, such as establish the management organization of government risk forewarning, departments of information gather and deal, departments of warning control and 3+1structural system of information analysis net .