Study On Risk Forewarning System Of Investment On Expressway Project

These years, China has made eye-catching achievements in expressway construction. While we are proud of our construction of expressway, we should also notice the problems generated in the process. Expressway is a project which usually relate to substantive investment and will cost long time, so its risks are very high. With broaden the policy of expressway investment channels, more and more investors have taken the investment risk of expressway seriously. Under this situation, it becomes more and more important for people to resolve on how to do project appraisal and reduce wrong investments. So we must make a systematic analysis, recognition and measure to the risk of expressway and build risk forewarning system effectively and perfectly. This is not only the basement in investment decision of Expressway project, but also the demand of developing our country's expressway.Herein, based on the study of risk forewarning and feature of investment appraisal, this article built the risk forewarning system of expressway investment. And it offers effective decision support to investment and development of expressway project. Firstly, directed against its characteristic, the article analyzed all kinds of risk of express project from finance, pre-completion and post-completion aspect. It also offers help to analyzing the risk of expressway deeply in the future and as the basement of risk appraisal, risk measure and risk analysis to project investment of expressway. Secondly, the article built the risk forewarning system of expressway investment after analysis the main forewarning index of express project. And Monte Carlo simulation to risk forewarning is applied in this article. It could avoid decision mistake due to the inaccurate forecast in investment. And it also supplied more accurate and more objective investment decision for investor and government. Finally, the article made empirical analysis to the risk forewarning of expressway project in investment as the simple of X project, increasing the maneuverability of the article.