An Approach To The Development Strategy Of China's Oil Industry Based On Oil Demand & Supply Trend Forecasting

As the major strategic material and special commodity, petroleum plays a key role in national economic development. With the rapid development of the national economy, there is an increasingly strong demand for petroleum domestically and massive consumption shoot-up, while domestic petroleum production lags far behind, thus resulting in a large gap between its demand and supply, and a day-by-day prominent contradiction. Demand-supply contradiction is the main constraint factor for future development of China's oil industry. This paper forecasts the demand & supply trend and analyzes the demand-supply contradiction of China's oil market. Then, comes up with relevant countermeasures to solve the demand-supply contradiction. The study is of great practical significance to the demand-supply balance in China's oil market.Aimed at supporting national economic sustainable development, the dissertation researches the petroleum industry from the view of whole economic and social environment. The dissertation discusses the long term development of the petroleum industry through the qualitative analysis and quantitative predictions. The main issue includes administrational system, resource, supply, consumption requirements, developing environment etc. The dissertation firstly describes the current developing conditions and some existent problems of China's oil industry. Secondly analyzes the domestic and international environments of China's oil industry. Based on the sort and analysis of a large amount of historical data, this dissertation forecasts the demand & supply trend of China's oil market by using Gray Model, trend extend forecast model and other quantitative forecast methods, in particular, places emphasis on analyzing the main causes leading to demand-supply contradiction and influence factors.