Investment Risk Analysis And Risk Decision For Tourism Projects

With the fast development of tourism, many places of China all step up the construction of tourism projects, a good many of which are successful and have the excellent benefits of economics, ecology and community. However, because of the risk in the process of investment, there are many abortive tourism projects that cause great losses. Accordingly, we should take the investment risk analysis and risk decision besides the feasibility study for tourism projects.First of all, this essay, from the perspectives of investor, discusses the principles, qualitative and quantitative methods for the identification, measurement, and evaluation of risks existing in the process of investment activities. It introduces Delphi method for identification of risk,Break Even method and Probability analysis method for measurement of risk and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process for evaluation of risk.Furthermore, this essay analyzes the different attitudes displayed by the investors when they confront with the risks and uses the Real-options Model originally to make the optimum risk decision for tourism projects. Besides, the essay takes advantage of the utility as well as the assurance theories to make the prevention from the risk.At last, in the demonstration of this essay, it utilizes the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method to have an integrate evaluation for the risks that affect the economics, ecology and community benefits of Da Long Hu tourism project in the Guangxi province. Of course, the detailed steps to prevent from the risk of this project are proposed in this paper.