The Research On Uncertainty Management Of Project Based On Scenario Planning

No matter how long it last, the project has a certain time span. During the time the project will face an environment which is dynamic varied. Future change can bring about a series of uncertainty. Sometimes much uncertainty affect each other, which make the situation more complex. To assure the project be finished all right, it is necessary to analyze the uncertainty and manage risk. It is strictly said that risk can be evaluated by probability. But in fact risk and uncertainty can't be distinguished clearly.There are much way to manage risk. In the paper the correlated knowledge on project's risk management is firstly introduced. The emphasis is to discuss scenario planning being used in risk management to analyze uncertainty and to cut down risk effectively. Because the plan is mainly a qualitative analysis way till today, to aim at the condition in which managers often make decisions after they only grasp part of the information, two qualitative combined quantitate ways are stated in order to help the manager make decision.In the paper the correlated knowledge on risk is firstly introduced. Then the uncertainty's level is presented. On the basis of analyzing the project flow carefully, each phase is discussed in detail from the point of risk identify. Also scenario planning is used in each phase to analyze uncertainty then the proper plan is brought forward. At last one certain project risk is identified and managed and the scenario planning is used. By the example it is showed that the way can reduce project uncertainty in faith.