The Analysis Of Balance Between Suppy And Demand Of Cultivatied Land In Shaanxi Province

Cultivated land is an important basis in socio-economic development, for the role of relationship to the overall situation of national economic development, social and political stability. The core of sustainable development strategy is for the comprehensive coordination among population, resources, food, environment and economic. The fundamental aim is to the good environment for the sustainable use of resources, to meet human survival and development needs, the most important and most critical of which is food supply and demand balance. Cultivated land is the carrier of food production, and it is the fundamental guarantee of food security. Cultivated land supply and demand balance in a country or region can be stable, timely, continued access to the control and protection of current and future needs of cultivated land resources for sustainable development, and can meet all current and future population of food in a certain quality of life and nutrition level.This paper aim at the overall situation and general trend analysis of the past, present and future use of cultivated land in Shaanxi Province, including quantitative research.In the study period(before 2020),it come to the overall judgment and overall mission of the use of cultivated land resources, according to feasibility analysis of cultivated land supply and demand balance, and some suggestions and countermeasures are achieved in allusion to the problems faced by cultivated land balance of supply and demand.Based on the study of the situation of cultivated land between demand and supply in Shaanxi Province,and according to the amount of cultivated land and related statistics in Shaanxi Province since 1978, firstly, this paper analyze the changes law of cultivated land use, explore the pressure and analyze its causes. Secondly, using statistical analysis and regression analysis method, the population, living standards, productivity of cultivated land, levels of economic development can be predicted, and then forecast the demand of cultivated land based on the need of food and cash crops production. Thirdly, the paper forecast of the amount of reduced cultivated land for the building occupants, returning farmland to ecological land, agricultural restructuring and destroyed by natural disaster and other factors. Then it analyze the potential added volume through land development, collating, including reclamation of farmland, hence the total cultivated land supply can be achieved.Through the analysis above, the following overall judgment can be achieved:(1) By forecasting, in 2020, there is a certain pressure to achieve cultivated land balance between supply and demand in Shaanxi province, so it is hard to complete self-sufficiency in grain. In the study period, the land supply to meet 90% of food self-sufficiency and a surplus. If added cultivated land meets the amount of construction purposes, in order to achieve 95% of food self-sufficiency, the gap between demand and supply reached 112,100 hectares; To fully achieve food self-sufficiency, the gap reached 306,400 hectares. If the annual added cultivated land reaches the forecasting potential reality, it can nearly meet 95% of food self-sufficiency, but in order to achieve food self-sufficient completely, the gap reach 256,800 hectares.(2) According to the dynamic change and development trend analysis of cultivated land utilization, it shows that there is a continued decreasing trend before 2020 in Shaanxi province. The decreased level of cultivated land depends on the protection intensity, the use efficiency of land for construction, increased investment of reserve land resources and degree of perfection measures.(3)Before 2020, population in Shaanxi Province will continue to increase, and reach peak in 2020, this will increase the demand for cultivated land, and the supply-demand balance will face greater pressure. In the progress of agricultural science and technology promotion, the per unit area yield and the total output will be enhanced to a certain degree, which can ease the use of cultivated land for balance.Finally, some proposals and countermeasures are put forward in response to the problems: Handling the relationship between the use and protection of cultivated land properly ;Strengthen the protection of basic farmland; raise the intensive level of land use; Reserve land resources development and do well in the comprehensive improvement of land resources, urban land used for building increasing and rural construction site reduction are should linked; Different strategy should be taken according different regional in shaanxi province; To improve information systems, and establish a data platform of unified land quantity and quality in order to achieve effective regulation; To redefine the meaning and scope of cultivated land scientifically, those land which doesn't undermine the plow layer, have a higher production capacity and can be adjusted to cultivated land easily should be judged as cultivated land.