Construct And Application Of Beijing CGE

Recently the rising of real estate price since 2000 has been the focus of people, especially in some big cities such as Beijing , Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen. Facing it central government considers that excessively quick rising of real estate price will bring much astaticism factor, even result in crisis. But local government thinks it will make local economy more energetic. Real estate developers reckon the price will rise greatly because it still has potential space. However consumers deem that the price has beyond their enduring.Then what will it bring to us and the society economy? What is the most appropriate level? Aim at these problems we take Beijing where real estate price rises at high speed for example, make Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) of Beijing, including six sections(①agriculture,②industry,③architecture(real estate),④traffic, storage, communicate,⑤wholesale, retail,⑥other). By this model, we analyze the influence of residents'income level and all the industrial in Beijing, just because of the rising of real estate price. At the same time we also simulate the reflection of residents'income level and all the instructions, under the hypothesis of real estate price falling down for 10%, 20%, 30%.The result shows that the product, production value and price are positive correlative. Price and investment arouse the change of production value and product respectively.For industry, some of its product is consumed by real estate, so its production value and price are impacted by real estate. At the same time they also influenced by investment.There is a problem of tract between Agriculture and real estate. So the tract value rising will result in the rising of farm produce cost. Under the investment's effecting the product of the fourth and fifth industry will rise all the time, no matter what level the real estate price is. The change of real estate price doesn't work very much on other industry.The level of resident's income and real estate price are negative correlative. If the real estate price drops, all the other industries will get positive development. But because of the margin effect descending, the development will become inapparent gradually.If the real estate price drops, the level of resident's income will improve. But the improvement will also become inapparent.The outcome above will help policy makers discern the impact of the real estate price's rising at a certain extent, and ascertain the orientation of macro policy.Before in CGE studying, it was usually applied in analyzing the influence of macro policy, at the same time price is endogenetic. But in this paper, we regard Beijing as our object, found region CGE for it, and in our model we make the real estate price be exogenous, emphasize particularly on the impact brought by the change of this price.The outcome proves that the idea of applying CGE in studying region economy is feasible. In addition regarding price as a exogenous variable is also doable. And it will enable local government make effective analyzing by price, then ascertain appropriate policy.Besides applying in analyzing the influence of some price's change, the model can also be used to analyze the impact of the change of some product, investment, consume, tax.