Research On Grey System Theory And Its Application In Investment Analysis

The investment plays a significant role in our social and economical development, and it is the basic motive force of national economics growth, so research on investment forecasting and decision is a very important subject in economics. Investment belongs to economics system, which is a sophisticated and ever-developping system, and includes many factors. As researching on it, we still have many things uncertain. Thus, we apply Grey System Theory in investment on the basis of the grey characteristics of economics. Grey system refers to the system in which some information is clear and some is unclear. Based on generating operation on the clear, some valuable information can be obtained to describe and monitor the rules of the issue.Firstly, this paper introduces some related theories of investment and Grey System Theory, and the mechanism of grey models. We advance a new method of linear transformation to deform the data and present the expression of parameters. As for the basis and destination of investment is increment of the capital, secondly, the paper utalizes the data of Heilongjiang Province's gross prodution from 1990 to 2003 to establish some grey models, such as GM(1,1), a weighted model that is to use a time-increasing factor from deformation observing time series, and a combining forecasting model based on GM(1,1) and Verhulst model. We compare these models and predict the prodution of the year from 2004 to 2010. Then we establish a GM(1,h), which illustrates the relation between the output and investment record of different industries. Simultaneously, we build up a compensative GM(1,h) based on GM(1,1) and the traditional GM(1,h). At the end of the thesis, we analyse the conditons for Lyapunov stability of investment economics system.The application of Grey System Theory in investment acquires some achievements .The method has theoretical and practical significance as its high precision and simplicity.