Study On The Potential Productivity Of Grain And Grain Security Of Shandong Province

Grain is the essential stuff for the human survival and development, and the necessary industrial material for many national economy branches as well. The normal grain production is interrupted by some human actions, resulting in the decrease in the output of grain and threatening to the grain security. It is not only a political problem for the security of the grain that related the national and social stability and the development of the economy, but also an essential one that related the national survival and development. For China which has one billion and more population, the grain production and security is always a timeless theme and focus for the government and the academe. Especially after the entering WTO of our country, the grain security has been an important area which faces various uncertainties and requires corresponding determination and adjustment to the countermeasures, because the grain security is related closely to the international agricultural production market.Shandong Province is one of the grain production bases of China, which has stable capability of grain supply. Besides meeting all the demands for Shandong Province itself, there is remain grain that can export to other provinces of China.Therefore, the grain security of Shandong Province holds a pivotal position. However, the gross grain product and per grain production in Shandong Province decrease year after year, which has a bad influence on the grain security of Shandong itself and China. It is necessary to carry out a research on the grain production of Shandong and make some suggestions to the grain security.In this paper, the potential productivity of grain and grain security of Shandong Province will be studied from six aspects, and there are seven chapters including the introduction. The second chapter introduces the grain production of Shandong Province and its status in China after the foundation of the People's Republic of China. Chapter 3 studies the present status of the grain security and the relationship between the grain security and the rural incomes. Chapter 4 discusses the factors that affect the grain security. Chapter 5 calculates the potential productivity of grain of Shandong Province. It is shown that the yield of per unit area is 32.8% of the potential productivity; the yield of per unit area and total production can be increased and the grain security can be ensured when some measures are adopted. Chapter 6 analyzes the production and demand of grain of Shandong. Based on the prediction of the number of the population during 2007-2020 with software such as Origin and SPSS, and so on, the demand of grain is obtained. At the same time, two methods are presented to predict the production of grain and analyze the relationship between the production and the demand of grain. Chapter 7 makes some suggestions to the grain security of Shandong Province.For Shandong Province, there is obvious difference between the actual capability of grain production and potential productivity of grain. The number of the population will increase during 2007-2020, so will the demand of grain. However, affecting by many factors, such as the gradual decrease of the arable land and rural enthusiasm for planting, and so on, the production of the grain can only meet the demand of Shandong Province itself. The security of grain is threaten by this, and will have an influence on the national grain security. Hence, some measures should be adopted. In this paper, seven suggestions are made: (1) Severe protection should be constituted to make the arable land for planting in stable condition; (2) The infrastructural construction should be strengthened to increase the production of the grain; (3) Protection policies should be constituted to increase the rural enthusiasm for planting; (4) Perfection measures should be adopted and the management should be energized for the grain reserve; (5) Population environment which is beneficial to the grain security should be constructed; (6) Early warning system should be constructed for the grain security; (7) Increase the production of the grain as our country has been in the WTO.