Inner Mongolian Correlation Analysis Of Primary Energy Consumption To Economical Cyclical Fluctuation

Both experience and logic prove that, any pattern economic growth has displayed the cyclical fluctuation,our country has already experienced 4 times of entire economic cycles after reform and openness according to our country economy scholars'research. After 1977, economic fluctuation did not appear negative growth or close to zero growth rate (4.9% in 1981) with the national income calculating. Inner Mongolia's economy growth has also presented the cyclical fluctuation characteristic. As for economic cycle theory, it can be thought that Inner Mongolia's economic growth has shifted to the stage that increasing cyclical fluctuation held the leading post gradually in 1980. At the same time our country implemented the reform and opening policy, and transformed the planned economy to the market economy, gradually got rid of highly centralization of state power which had wrongly affected the mistake economy for a long while. Therefore, the inherence characteristic of economic growth can be embodied out more genuine from the economy fluctuation. Then what characteristic had shown in the course of consumption of primary energy, and what's the connection between energy consumption and economic growth in this period of time in Inner Mongolia. The author has carried out demonstration analyses about the above-mentioned problem by calculating the annual datum from 1980 to2006 of Inner Mongolia."The direct method" is used to mensurate the cyclical fluctuation of Inner Mongolia, which can reflect the cyclical fluctuation easier and clear. During eliminating time series of long-term trend, it has relatively highlighted influence of the year rising rate. Meanwhile "center line" method is carried on in the foundation of "direct method" to reduce the errors caused by the subjective factors in the process of mensuration, for the measure off the stage of economical cyclical. The "center line" representing a figure as a centre variable data, often is not effected so easy by the exceeding individual data .So it is more useful than counting variable. Therefore the economic cyclical fluctuation of Inner Mongolia after the reform and openness can be carried out.Inner Mongolia produced a lot of energy while also consumed much. Primary energy consumption to be the inside influencing factor of the economic growth take an important part of the economic growth of Inner Mongolia. Especially in period of the tenth five-year plan, both total quantity and the proportion of primary energy consumption presented the enhancement tendency, the average growth rate of energy consumption is 24.3%. According to analyses of the primary energy consumption after reform and openness of Inner Mongolia, the author has carried out stage partition to Inner Mongolia's economical cycle fluctuation through comparing the primary energy consumption with economical cycle fluctuation.The conclusion such as stage characteristics between primary energy consumption and economic growth, the problem that economic growth shows too high dependency degree to primary energy consumption can be educed by the demonstration analyses. Therefore much attention should be paid to combining real economic growth with primary energy consumption, which the energy consumption can not outstrip excessively in economic growth nor get behind it. At the same time, we should hammer at improving the energy utilization rate and lessening consumption rate to make Inner Mongolia'economic growth to be continuous,fast and healthy.