Research On The Evolution Of Chinese Primary Energy Consumption Structure In Low-carbon Environment

The substance of low-carbon economy is reducing carbon emission with steady economic development and establishing a reasonable energy consumption structure,thus achieving a win-win situation between social economy development and ecological environment protection,which has become a focus for countries all over the world to study and discuss.At present,China is in the stage of rapid economic development and rapid industrialization and urbanization,which leads to a steady increasing demand for energy.However,the energy consumption structure taking coal as main not only pollutes the environment by producing large amounts of carbon dioxide,but also severely reduces the efficiency of energy utilization,resulting to a series of problems such as environmental degradation and energy supply security crisis.As a result,it will be quite a challenge for China to achieve the goal of carbon dioxide emission intensity in 2020.Due to China's vast territory and different resource distribution,the regional economic development is quite uneven,which leads to a significant regional difference in energy consumption structure and carbon dioxide emission level.This would undoubtedly increase the difficulty for further improvement of Chinese energy structure.In the context of low-carbon economy environment,therefore,further study and optimization of China's primary energy structure and primary energy efficiency has a great realistic and long-term significance to low-carbon economy development,ecological environmental protection,economical use of resources and sound and rapid economic and social development.In this paper,Chinese primary energy consumption structure was presented as the research object and studies were carried out in the following five aspects based on theoretical foundation of low-carbon economy and energy consumption structure.Firstly,under the foundation of analyzing the current situation of Chinese primary energy consumption,energy structure evolution factor was used to show energy structure variation in our country and an econometric regression model was established based on the view of primary energy consumption.In combination of DEA method,association between primary energy consumption structure and economic growth was estimated from consumption efficiency and contribution level respectively.Secondly,primary energy consumption structure influence factor research was conducted from the angle of structural decomposition.After that,the structural decomposition method and classification was proposed and the main factors influencing primary energy consumption structure were found.Thirdly,the self-evolution process of primary energy consumption was analyzed by using markov chain and the future Chinese primary energy consumption structure was predicted;evolution model of primary energy consumption structure was built with SD to simulate the influence of various policies.Fourthly,starting with situation analysis,reasonable assumption was made to important parameters in the model and a certain value was assigned to simulate the development of primary energy consumption structure under different situations,which helped to evaluate whether the target of national energy strategy has been achieved and the way to approach the goal.Fifthly,based on a comprehensive analysis on the influence factors to primary energy consumption structure,with primary consumption structure evolution model and several situation analysis results,suggestions were given to optimize the primary energy consumption structure in our country.Three achievements had been made through this study.As to the first achievement,DEA model and econometric model were adopted to analyze the influence of primary energy consumption structure to economic growth and the results showed that since 1998,primary energy consumption efficiency of our country had remained stable around 1 and the contribution of each 1% increment of coal,oil,gas,nuclear and hydropower to GDP was-0.0902%,0.27453%,0.57945%,0.01924%,respectively.For the second achievement,under the foundation of comprehensive consideration,screening and simplification on Chinese primary energy consumption influence factor,the SD model were built for primary energy consumption structure.The model had passed the structural and behavioral test,whose results showed that the model built was realistic and could truly reflect the evolution of primary energy consumption structure of our country.For the third achievement,the scenario analysis method provided a new view and breakthrough point for this study,in which the comparison of three set scenarios and three energy consumption structure drafts helped the adjustment of future development mode and energy structure.It was revealed that the optimization of industrial structure and energy consumption structure,the control of economic speed,the enhancement of energy policy and technological progress could significantly reduce China's energy intensity,carbon emissions and carbon intensity,which contributed to the coordinated development of economy-energy-environment of China.