Research On The Means Of Risk Analysis For Real Estate Development Project

After the reform and opening, the real estate industry has recovered and developed with the reform of the city housing and land using systems in China. Products and investments of the real estate have their peculiarity:The huge investment, the long payback period, the compound risks, and large extent of the influence of success or failure, etc. But in China a majority of Real Estate Investment Company lack sufficient knowledge in risk management. They not possess the risk management department, and also not configure special risk supervisor, to say nothing of scientific means in risk evaluation and risk analysis. In order to lower the level of risk and enlarge the profit, it is absolutely necessary that objective and reasonable analysis and evaluation of the risk be made and corresponding measures be taken by the investors. These will be of great benefit to the development of the real estate, but also to the stable of national economic situation.First, the conception, characteristic and classification of risk are summed up, the risk of the real estate investment project and the theory of risk analysis are introduced and the function of risk evaluation is pointed out; secondly, risk factors are analyzed particularly from the perspective of the system and the source of risk, the direct action body of risk, the influence of goal which made by the risk and the process of project management separately, then this paper sets up a risk estimate index system of real estate development project.Based on the summary of previous evaluation methods, this paper point out the shortcoming of The Analytical Hierarchy Process in risk evaluation, then introduces new techniques and models such as the Gray Prediction Model and the Artificial Neural Network Model which based on the Matlab software. A new risk estimate system is established in the paper and applied to the practice. Breakeven Point and Sensitivity analysis were revised to make the risk evaluation properly and scientifically. On the basis of the analysis of shortcomings that lie in the previous express formula of the Net Present Value, another kind of express formula, that is to say, the Model of the Net Present Value about Risk Degree, is put forward and the process of answering is explained particularly. At last, a new risk measurement model that considers the investor's risk degree is brought forward. These models are applied to the real case of a real estate project to evaluate its risk level and satisfactory result is made.The risk evaluation of the real estate investment project is a very complex system evaluation. The paper puts merely forth effort to provide a kind of thinking and frame to analyze and solve this kind of problem and provides reference for the administrator to make the decision more reasonable and scientific.