The Research On Risk Evaluation Of Real Estate Development Project

With the constant perfection of the socialist market economy system and the further deepening of the goal for building a well-off society,the real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries in our country,and driving-related industries form an important industry group to support the rapid development of macro-economic.Real estate is an industry with high investment,higher profit and high risk,and influenced by economic,society,technology,etc,facing more uncertainty.Real estate affected by economic,social,technological and other factors influenced facing more uncertainty,is a high investment,high return and high risk industry.The blind investment boom not only brings great risk loss for investors,but also influences the steady development of economic and social stability.This paper selects the risk of real estate development project as the object of analysis and research.Then,it based on a thorough analysis of relevant researches at home and abroad,employing the method which combines the theoretical research and empirical research,qualitative research and quantitative research,grasping the advanced researches,using the modern risk management theory and method,building a scientific risk assessment index system and evaluation model of real estate development project,and selects a real estate development project as the object of empirical research.Using Delphi method to construct 33 second index of real estate development project risk evaluation,including own funds risk,rate risk,industrial policy risk, advertised bidding risk,market supply and demand risk,etc.The 33 second indexes are analyzed by communalities analysis,variance analysis and component analysis, applying Factor Analysis method,and generates 12 main factors(first index), including policy environmental risk,funding risk,economic environmental risk, market risk,etc.This article constructs risk evaluation model of real estate development project using Gray System Theory.This method provides an effective approach for risk evaluation,compensating for the poor utilization in assessment information of several gray degree evaluations for general methods,and can solve the "little sample","incomplete information" of uncertain problems.