Research Of Shipbuilding Project Investment Risk Analysis Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

The shipbuilding industry is a strategic industry that provides the main equipments for shipping transportation, coastal defense construction and ocean development. In pace with the quickly rises of the shipbuilding productivity domestic, the issue of lavishly investment in shipbuilding project is obvious, which influence the project income greatly, and do harm to normal development of shipbuilding industry. So it is complete necessary to carry on risk analysis in advance for new shipbuilding investment, in order to guarantee its profit. And which is of important realistic significance to improve the income of a shipbuilding project investment.The foundation of this research includes two parts, the basic risk analysis theories of shipbuilding project investment, and the present condition analysis of project investment in shipbuilding industry. Concepts related to shipbuilding project investment, risk analysis theory and the principle and application of Monte Carlo simulation are reviewed in the first part. In the second part of present condition analysis, firstly the project investment's characteristics in shipbuilding industry is analyzed based on four aspects of investor, investment object, investment manner, and the purpose of investment. Secondly, the prominent issues in shipbuilding industry are summarized, finally the risk resources of shipbuilding project is proposed from three aspects of characteristics of project itself, external environment of project, stakeholders of project.Based on the review and the analysis above, combine the complexity characteristics of shipbuilding project, we construct a risk analysis frame based on Monte Carlo simulation, which formulate the methods of each steps in risk anglicizing and the general appraisal index. Firstly, the shipbuilding project related factors is identified according to this frame, as a result, a risk factors system is established, and what's more the affect weight of each factors is sorted by means of fuzzy-random sampling AHP. Secondly, the possibility distribution of the risk variable (main risk factor) is worked out by using of Matlab. Finally, the simulation model of risk analysis is set up, which take the NPV as the function index, and make an introduction about the simulate process is implement in Matlab.In the part of empirical research, a shipbuilding base in shanghai is taken as the case, the basic data of this project is input into the simulation model, after computing, the simulation result is .worked out, which is consistent with the operating status of this project. Therefore the risk analysis frame and simulation is feasible and efficacious.The shipbuilding project investment risk analysis is a system evaluation issue that very complicated, the research of this thesis aim at providing a practical viable way of thinking and analysis frame in shipbuilding project risk analysis, and provides reference and instruction for shipbuilding decision making. So that the decision making is more scientific and reasonable.