Study On Agricultural Surplus Labor Force Transfer In Jilin Province

"agriculture,rural,peasants" is a bottleneck problem restricting china's economic and social development. If china wants to speed up the adjustment of economic structure and achieve a smooth and effective change in the social structure, it must take strong measures to tackle the "agriculture,rural,peasants". The core of "agriculture,rural,peasants" is how to continue increasing the income of farmers effectively, and the transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force is a good way to increase the income of farmers. The construction of cities and towns, beginning late of 1980s, through massive development of township enterprises, not only increased the income of farmers, but also accelerated the pace of urbanization. However, by the mid of 1990s, the development of township enterprises was in trouble, which significantly weakened its ability to absorb agricultural surplus labor force transfer. Then, it is a good for thought that how to reconfigurable platform for the development of township enterprises and realize the second peak of township enterprises absorbing agricultural surplus labor force transfer.As a major agricultural province, in order to achieve economic develop well and fast, Jilin province must face up to increasingly prominent "agriculture,rural,peasants", which is bound to accelerate the transfer of agricultural surplus labor. Therefore, the study on the transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force in Jilin province will have some theoretical and practical significance. So this article utilizes the methord that is the combination of theory with practice,ualitative with quantitative study, elaborated the current agricultural surplus force transfer question in Jilin province.Firstly, this article introduce classical theory of development economics on the transfer of agricultural surplus labor force and analyze the most important four factors which restrict agricultural surplus labor force of china. The first facor is : the low cultural qualities of labour narrow space of their employment, make them lack innovation capability and agricultural surplus force transfer from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector lack stability. The second factor: the system of the urban and rural structure, which insist of the household registration system, land system and the social security system ,has a serious impact on the agricultural surplus labor force ttransfer to urban areas. The third factor: the lags of urbanization lead to the agricultural surplus labor force divorce from the cities and towns, hamper the development of township enterprises and the development of tertiary industry and make the remaining funds divorce from the rural production, so a low level of urbanization is the fundamental reasons restricting the transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force .The fourth factor: when the tertiary sector develops into the key areas to absorb agricultural surplus labor force, unreasonable industrial structure and the lag development of tertiary industry will inevitably restricts the transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force largely.Secondly, this article estimate the amount of the agricultural surplus labor force in Jilin Province with the labor productivity of comparison ,and then, based on this, the number of the agricultural surplus labor force of Jilin in 2010 was estimated with ARMA model of non-stationary time series . At the same time ,it introduce the situation of the agricultural surplus labor force transfer in Jilin province, mainly describing the larger amout of transfer, the slow process of transfer, the transfer out of the surplus agricultural labor force having low technological content and fewer career opportunities. And also,it analyse the factor which restrict agricultural surplus labor force in Jilin province, including dual structure, backward concepts of ideology and culture, low level of the human capital stock , "Rally" of town weakened, and the irrational industrial structure and lagging development of the tertiary industry . In particular, I propose that, in analysis on factor about the irrational industrial structure and lagging of the development of the tertiary industry in Jilin province restricting the transfer of agricultural surplus labor force, this paper analyses the industrial structure and development of the tertiary industry making use of two indicators "special coefficient" and "changes—distribution ", applied in regional economics to analyze the change of employment structure .At the same time, making use of unit root test and through analyzing whether there is the existence of cointegration relationship between secondary and tertiary industries and the corresponding structure of employment, compared with secondary industries , it find that the development of the tertiary industry lags behind in Jilin province.Finally, in accordance with the analysis on the factor above restricting transfer of agricultural surplus labor force in Jilin Province ,this paper give a number of constructive measures, if it wants to speed up the transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force in Jilin province, including as follow: first, it should carry out reform of the system and innovation, and improve the system construction furtherly, in order to create a relaxed policy environment, for a smooth transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force , mainly including innovation of the household registration system, the employment system and the social security system, which provide protection system for the transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force .The second, it should develop the tertiary industry to enhance the absorption of surplus labor force in agriculture. This paper establish space state model through making use of Kalman filtering to find the per capita gdp of Jilin province compared to various industries flexibility in the structure of employment. On the base of the analysis of space state model , it find that the per capita gdp of the tertiary industry of structure of employment flexibility has been an upward trend, and in 2004, the flexibility even reached 2.62, which shows tertiary industry has a great advantage in absorbing transfer labour in Jilin province .The third ,based on referring to the experience about the transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force of Japan and Korean and in light of China's actual situation , it should make use of "growth pole" theory to guide the construction of cities and towns to promote rural enterprise clusters. In the mechanism of interactive development between the rural labor force structure in cluster enterprises and urbanization, it can achieve second peak that township enterprises to absorb agricultural surplus labor force , furtherly contributing to the pace of construction of cities and towns. The fourth , it should strengthen rural vocational and technical education to improve the quality of knowledge and skills of the rural labor force, and also play functions of the government, which promote an orderly transfer of the agricultural surplus labor force.