The Model Study On Early-warning Of Financial Crisis For Manufacturing Listed Company

With the development of the integration process of the domestic market and foreign competitors at home and abroad speeding up, enterprises are facing more brutal survival and the development of competition. The assumption of continuing operations in traditional financial theory is gradually relaxed, enterprises are facing with increasing uncertainty. The number of businesses managing in trouble even leading to bankruptcy is raising sharply because of financial crisis. In fact, any financial crisis is a process of gradual deterioration. In right time, accurate carrying on early-warning analysis to enterprise's financial affairs is the objective requirement for the market competition system, it is the essential guarantee of enterprise's survival and development too. Enterprise's financial early-warning as the barometer of the economical operation and indicator lamp which enterprises managed, carrying on research to it not only has higher academic values, but also there is enormous using value.The domestic and international scholars have already done much research in the field of the financial early-warning and established many models which have certain use value. However, the traditional research puts more stresses to the analysis and the research of the non-cash flow factor, pays attention to the function of the non-cash flow factor in the financial early-warning, but neglects the cash flow factor and non-financial factor which isn't the easy quantification. Although some rational enterprise superintendent, the exterior analyst and the academic members start to realize the function of the cash flow in the business management and the financial early-warning, there isn't the concrete empirical study.Exactly based on the above-mentioned reasons, the thesis carries on the analysis and the appraisal to the classical document of the domestic and foreign financial early-warning research area, and tries to establish the financial early-warning model separately taking the manufacturing industry to be listed as the object, using the data of China Capital Market and the method of logistic regression to target non-cash flow, cash flow indicators and the non-cash flow indicators with cash flow indicators and ownership structure. On the model established by careful analysis and comparative studies, the thesis inspects the function of the non-cash flow factor, the cash flow factor and the ownership structure factor thoroughly in the financial early-warning. The result of analysis indicates that the forecast and the explanatory ability of the non-cash flow target must be stronger than that of the cash flow target. The ownership structure target couldn't be able to enter the early-warning model through the examination, which explains that the forecast and the explanatory ability of the ownership structure target is very weak. Finally, the thesis carries on the forecast of the following financial early-warning research and puts forward some improvement proposal.