Study On Financial Crisis Early-Warning Of The Eaterprises Based On Cash Flow

In the fierce competitive market economy,the survival and development of enterprises are faced with tremendous pressure and risk,and they are likely to experience a variety of crises any time. Due to the high sensitivity of enterprise finance, appears of the financial crisis become the most intuitionistic reflection of Enterprise management crisis.So tracking and monitoring for the enterprise's financial status, an effective financial crisis prediction model is to set up urgently,which is important for all the stakeholders.Warning signal for enterprise doesn't depend on profits but enough cash flow and the ability to pay corresponding to the scale of business.Research has indicated that the financial early-warning prediction based on cash flow is higher accuracy.So the thesis aims to construct early-warning index from the angle of cash flow and to establish the financial early-warning model.Firstly,on the basis of summarizing financial early-warning of domestic and international enterprises,this paper point out that financial index based on"accrual basis"can't meet demands of enterprise's financial Early-Warning,they should set up the financial early-warning of cash flow.Secondly, relevant theories of the financial early-warning are expounded.Then the paper analyses mainly theory basis of financial early-warning based on cash flow,influences of cash flow,advantages of financial early-warning of cash folw,and construction of financial index system of cash flow.Finally the paper selects 37 listed companies with the first mark of ST and 37 listed companies in non-financial crisis ,and pick out 40 companies as samples of constructing model,the remmaining 34 as test samples,then select 18 financial index of cash flow.The paper analyses 18 index variables respectively before one year ,two and three years by SPSS statistical methods,and finds significant differences index variables between companies with mark of ST and companies in non-financial crisis,then factor analysis for these different variables.The paper constructs the logistic regression model with factors of factor analysis, and judging and forecasting by the model, comparison and analysis of results.Main research results of the thesis as follows: cash flow indexs of Listed companies contains the information of forecasting financial crisis and they can predict enterprise's financial status;The model based on cash flow index can provide warning signal for financial crisis,and the closer of the companies to financial crisis,the higher forecasting precision of model.