County Land Use Structure Prediction And Optimization Research

Land use structure is a proportion among various types of land in a land use system,reflecting the configuration of land resources between national economy industries and departments.Reasonable arrangement of land use structure can not only improve the comprehensive benefits of land use system,but also promote the adjustment of industrial structure so that the country's economy can develop towards a more healthy direction.What current land policymakers need to focus on is formulating a reasonable land use policy to achieve the goals that optimize land use structure.This paper takes this as a starting point,studying systematically against the adjustment of land use structure,which including the following aspects:(1)Studying theory of land use structure.According to the research status at home and abroad and relative theory of land use structure,county scale is confirmed as the best scale to research on optimization of land use structure,choosing Mang City as a target area of this study.Secondly,introduce methods and models of this study,namely CA-Markov Model used in prediction of land use structure and Gray linear programming method used in optimizing land use structure.(2)Analysis on the change of land use in Mang City.According to land use change survey data ranged from 2009 to 2015 in Mang City,we choose corresponding indicators and models,analyzing the change that quality,structure and extent of land use in Mang City among seven years,summarizing the regular pattern and analyzing the rationality of land use.(3)The prediction of land use structure in Mang City.According to the existing data of land use in Mang City,combining with the current policy and land characteristics of land use in Mang City,forecasting the land use data of Mang City in the year 2014 with CA-Markov Model,comparing to the actual data in 2014,checking the accuracy of the model and then predicting the situation of land use in 2020 are what we do.(4)The optimization of land use structure in Mang City.Based on Gray linear programming method,according to the needs of social and economic development in Mang City,we create an objective function on the purpose of maximize economic benefits,and set restrictions to add condition to social and ecological benefits,constructing the optimization model of land use structure in Mang City,solving optimization of land use structure of Mang City in 2020 through Lingo software.(5)Suggesting the optimization of land use structure in Mang City.Comparing prediction results of land use structure to optimization results of land use structure of Mang City in 2020,the conclusion of which is gotten by researchers.By comparing the gap between the two and exploring the reason of formation the gap,we can give a suggestion about the adjustment of land use structure in Mang City in order to provide the scientific basis for the compilation of the new round of land use planning of Mang City.