Research On The Method Of Risks Evaluation On Urban Rail Transit

As an important basic facility in national economy, urban rail transit projects are effective way to solve the transit congestion and to achieve sustainable development in big cities. Since the urban rail project is facing the complicated risky factors which can cause severe consequence, because of the characteristic of the urban rail project--long period. large amount and complex factor. For ensuring the quality of the risk analysis, we need to scientifically the various kinds of risks possibly existing the process of the urban rail project so that the urban rail project investors can master the nature of risk and the changing law of risk ,then take measures according to reduce the risky loss.For now, there are tow evaluation methods of the urban rail project risk. This article studies in the predecessor in the foundation, does some discussion research to the risk of urban rail project, enable the existing appraisal method to tend to the consummation.The paper has established urban rail project risk evaluation feasible programs and has built an analytic hierarchy model including three levels of aim, rule and element. The paper also has constructed the proportional evaluation index program which includes the coordination of fix quantifying and fixes qualifying analysis, and multi-factor, multi-level integrated taxis. The evaluation system can calculate the precise proportional index which affects the urban rail project risk by applying level analysis. And urban rail project risk comprehensive appraisal will be done by applied mathematics...