The Forecast Of Oil Demand In China Using Cointegration Model

The oil is that the mankind depends on for existence, important material base of national economic development, is the important insurance of our country economy that keeps fast,healthy, stable development and of setting up the harmonious,saving type society, it is a material base of realizing the strategic objective of our country, have a very important role in our country's modernization. So, A growing number of scholars involved in there search of inherent links between energy consumption and economic growth, is also developing a number of methods for forecasting energy consumption.This paper discusses the causation of oil consumption, GDP, people, oil price industry structure, energy structure and technology advance variables with the co-integration. Find variables of oil consumption industry structure, energy structure and technology advance have co-integration relationship and establish the error correction model about oil consumption. In addition, we also test the data generated process of our oil consumption series, build an auto regression model with the trend for forecasting oil consumption to 2025. The result could be accepted comparing that of some researchers though the result looks a bit high. The empirical research on the relationship between economic growth (GDP) and oil consumption in China was done by using the Granger Causality test. The results indicated that economic growth led to oil consumption in single direction.This article embarks from our country energy present situation, uses determines the nature of with the quota, the method which the present situation analysis and the forecast unifies, has pointed out our country energy development direction, has conducted the system research to our country energy demand, and has carried on the simulation to the energy demand, proposed our country energy strategy choice suggestion, has manifested the research integrity.