Risk Evaluation And Avoidance Research On Commercial Real Estate Investment

In recent years, whereas the residential real estate market fierce competition and market capacity tends to saturation, large funds has entered the field of commercial real estate investment, commercial real estate has become a new focus to the national economy investment. Because the increase of social demands and the expansion of the scale of investment, China commercial real estate has a greatly rapid development in these years. However, China commercial real estate development course just for more than 10 years, it's still in initial development stage, because the relevant real estate theory and government policy is not perfect, and with the influence of variety of variables in external environment and the limitation of real estate developer's investment concept, there is still lots of investment risk in China commercial real estate investment process. Research on commercial real estate investment risk evaluation and avoidance issues have important theoretical and practical significance.With the help of home and abroad theories and methods on real estate investment risk research, considering the actual situation of commercial real estate investment in China, this thesis used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish China's commercial real estate investment risk evaluation index system, and used Shaanxi Yangling New Times Square as a example to evaluate commercial real estate investment risk ,at last, put forward risk avoidance from the view of systematic risk and non-systematic risk strategies. The main study as follows:Chapter I, introduction. This part mainly introduced the subject selection background, purpose, and significance, review the status of research at home and abroad, and put forward the research thinking, analysis methods and core views in this thesis.Chapter II, commercial real estate investment theory and risk evaluation methods. This part primarily analyzed the concepts and characteristics of commercial real estate, commercial real estate investment, analyzed and investigated the main commercial real estate investment and development models, discussed the advantages and disadvantages of some investment risk evaluation methods, and determined the used risk evaluation method in this thesis.Chapter III, commercial real estate investment risk evaluation based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Mainly introduced the basic principles of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and its operating steps when applied in risk evaluation, and introduced the basic principles of AHP and the steps of determining evaluation indicators weights. Through the analysis of commercial real estate investment risk influencing factors, this part established the commercial real estate investment risk evaluation index system.Chapter IV, Shaanxi Yangling New Times Square project investment risk evaluation. Through spot investigation and data collection, this part used the risk evaluation model established in Chapter III to evaluate the investment risk of Yangling New Times Square project.Chapter V, commercial real estate investment risk avoidance and prevention. This part put forward feasibility study to prevent systematic risk. And against non-systematic risk, put forward risk avoidance strategy from the view of investment models, financial tools, risk transfer, risk diversification, etc. and combining with the situation of example project, put forward some risk avoidance suggestion to example project.Chapter VI, the conclusion. This part concluded the major research results of this thesis, and pointed out the deficiencies that need further study.