Risk Analysis And Comprehensive Evaluation Of Real Estate Investment

China’s economy has developed swiftly since China carried out the policy of reform and opening up,and the real estate industry has been the mainstay industry of the national economy. With the rapid development of the real estate industry, the price of the real property soared, which made the real estate industry one of the most profitable industries.Many measures have been taken to curb the fast rise of house price by the government,but they have little effects. In 2008,after the financial crisis that had an impact on the real estate industry in our country, the potential risks gradually emerged. Thereupon the real estate industry came into the bottom. But at the end of the year,because of the country’s some good policies,which made the industry reflourish.But not for long time,since 2010,the real estate market entered the period of "ice" again. Ups and downs of the development of the real estate industry warns us that it is of great meaning to research on the risk management of real estate enterprises.The paper researches on risk management that is from the perspective of the real estate developers and on the basis of the theory of the life cycle. Firstly,the paper introduces the definition and characteristics of real estate investment risk and analyse the comparatively commonly used identifying and measuring methods of real estate.Based on the theory of the life cycle,then combined with the actual situation of China’s real estate investment and the selected case,real estate investment risk can be divided into risk in making stategic decision period,risk in preparing for building period,risk in building period and risk in renting and saling period,then analyzes the major risk factors of each stage,and constructs the risk evaluation system. Next,the paper introduces the reason why select multi-level grey fuzzy evaluation model to evaluate the real estate investment risk and the method of establishing model in detail.In this paper,project T in H,has been chosen as a research project for studying on its investment risk in using multi-level grey fuzzy evaluation model. First of all,the paper determines the weight of each indexin the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then the expert scoring method is adopted to evaluate the indexes score. Next,confirms the various indicators of gray level using variable weight grey clustering theory,then uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the total risk degree of the project. Multi-level grey fuzzy evaluation model has integrated the merits of both Analytic Hierarchy Proeess and Grey System Theory.Based on the experieces of experts fully absorbed,gray model enables the evaluation results more objective and realistic project,can achieve the aim of risk analysis very well and provide more intuitive decision basis for real estate developers.