| Along with the fast growth of the national economy, the real estate market also presents good development situation in recent years, and also the real estate already becomes a foundational industry in the national economy. However, the real estate investment is an activity which is strong in synthesize, profession and technique, at the same time also is an enterprise with high investment, high repayment and high risk. These characteristics cause that real estate industry is different with other product investments. We have to carry on a thorough analysis and science guard to the existent risk in real estate investment project. So a sort of practical special suitable theory and method to carry on qualitative and quantitative analysis is needed urgently, so that our nation to do exactitude development strategy and programming in our country real estate industry and lead consumer to do a rational investment choice.In this paper, the definition and characteristics of the investment risk of real estate is elaborated, the comparatively commonly used identifying and measuring methods of the risk of real estate are analyzed and the advantages and disadvantages of the listed methods have been evaluated. In combination with the realistic situation of real estate investment in our own country, the risks are classified into social risk, economical risk, technological risk, operating risk and natural risk according to the sources of the risks. In addition, seventeen sub-factors comprised by the five major risk factors have been analyzed elaborately. After that, a risk evaluation system of real estate has been established, a risk evaluation model of real estate investment, which is based on multi-level grey evaluation method, is constructed. Additionally, with respect to the defect which exists in the traditional multi-level grey evaluation method, two points of improvement to the model have been given creatively: the improvement of the judgment matrix consistency and the induction of the concept of likelihood estimation with an aim to enhance the exactitude of the calculation result of the model.Afterwards in this paper, the Olympic Town-South Garden, a project invested by YJ real estate in Kunming City, has been chosen as a research object, where the qualitative and quantitative analysis are combined to empirically study the investment risk of real estate. The result of the research has manifested that: multi-level grey evaluation method has integrated the merits of both Analytic Hierarchy Process and Grey System Theory, thus, experiences of experts can be fully absorbed, the evaluation result becomes more accurate and conforms with the realistic situation, which renders it have comparatively strong practicality and maneuverability and can achieve the aim of risk analysis very well. The data analysis of improved multi-level grey evaluation method is more comprehensive and can provide a more intuitive basis for decision for the real estate developer. Lastly, the basic policy of warding off the investment risk of real estate has been advanced in this paper and specific measurements of risk control have been put forward from the manager's angle. |
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