Research On Measurement Of Commercial Bank's Credit Risk For Real Estate

Credit assets are dominating ones for banks, while banks are the natural market for accumulating and trading risks. As a result, credit risk managemet comes to be an eternal subject. At present, it is important for China to make research on credit risk management for real estate.With the development of econometrics and computer technology, many major financial organizations developed various credit management models. According to the characteristics of the real estate credit in China, Credit Portfolio View model is choosed to measure and forecast the credit risk of real estate. First of all, this paper gives some details for the related concepts of real estate credit and especially points out that it is possible and necessary to carry out the credit risk measurement for real estate.Secondly, it reviews the development of credit risk measurement models and compares the third-generations credit risk ones. It combines with the conditions in Chinese commercial banks to show the advantage of using CPV model to measure and forecast the credit risk of real estate. Thirdly, in terms of choosing three macroeconomic varies (Composite Leading Indicator, Macroeconomic Index.and China Real Estate Climate Index), and the transformation value of the default probability of real estate credit. This paper gives an estimate of CPV model with the'Eviews'software By comparing the fitted value and real value of the default probability of real estate credit, CPV model shows efficiency to measure the credit risk of real estate. Then, this model is used to forecast the default probability of real estate for Novemeber, 2007. Finally, based on the credit risk measurement, from possibilitiy and necessity aspects, the ways on how to decrease credit risk are given.This paper can come to a conclusion that, CPV model is full of high rationality and efficiency to measure and forecast the default probability of real estate credit risk and can offer the robust references for the commercial banks to defense the credit risks. Meanwhile, it also confirms that default probability is linked to economy closely. When the economy worsens, default increases; when the economy becomes stronger, default decreases.