Research On Residential Land Price Risk Monitoring And Warning Of Tangshan

The core of land market management is land price management. In recent years, urban land price grew rapidly. Once appear new land price prep above of peripheral price in 2007. The serious distortion of land prices buried under a hidden danger for the development of the land market. Enter 2008, along with the cooling of real estate market, the land market has plunged. Land auctions frequently flow in some cities. The risk of land price has drawn more and more attention of the government. But, so far, land market has not any special forecast and early warning mechanism of land price.This article references the research results of early warning system of economy and real estate market both domestic and overseas. In Tangshan residential land price as the research object, this article establishes the early warning model of urban residential land price risk. Through this research, we except to provide the government's economic sectors with the basis for decision-making, to provide the investors with risk alert and to provide the government's land management sectors with powerful tools. In view of the above content, this article mainly includes:(1) Summarize theories, methods, development present situation, etc of early warning system of economy and real estate market both domestic and overseas. Analyze the formation mechanism and influencing factors of urban land price and discuss the rationality of urban land price.(2) Establish residential land price monitoring system relying on the benchmark price update project and the urban land price dynamically monitor project of Tangshan. Calculate the actual land price index according to historical land price and the historical CPI index.(3) Discuss the theoretical basis of land price warning forecast. Expounds the scientificalness and feasibility of urban land price risk warning forecast system from the theory of economic development, economic cycle theory etc. Establish residential land price risk early warning model on the basis of the land market of Tangshan.(4) Summarize the empirical study of urban land price warning forecast system and obtain the final conclusions:①Establish pre-warning system for urban land price is necessary, and the prediction is scientific and feasible.②Land price fluctuation is normal, and it is one of the characteristics of land price.③Under the influence of speculation and short-term irrational expectations, the land price will appear larger bubble, bring risk for the land market.④Urban land price warning forecast system can help the government to make the rational policies, can help the investors to take corresponding measures to avoid the risk. It will play a very important role in maintaining the long-term stability of the land market development.