| Since the 21st century, travel demand of residents increased, traffic congestion in large cities became the problem that reduced the efficiency and quality of the city.Therefore, the construction of smooth, efficient, economic and environmentally friendly transport system has become priority task of a modern city.Research and Practice has proved that a simple increase in urban road will not solve traffic problems of the city, developing public transport and the realization of the urban transport integration is an effective way of solving traffic problems which has become the consensus of most traffic scholars.With the coordination of different transport modes and other factors, integrated transport system can adapt to different levels of passengers in the transport capacity, and the travel between city area should be coordinated with transfer. As a result, transfer is becoming increasingly common and playing an important rold in the operation of urban transport system. The most effective way to organize transport modes transfer is to build an comprehensive passenger transport terminal and to build an effcient urban transport system. Therefore, the construction of comprehensive passenger terminals became the focus of the the construction of urban transport.The transfer volume which is exchange vlume between different transport modes in comprehensive passenger transport terminal became an important part of the city transport passenger volume forecasting. Since transfer function is one of the comprehensive passenger transport terminal'core functions, it is meaning to analyze and forecast the transfer volume between different transport modes with the study of the passenger size and characteristics of the current flow in the terminal. As a result, it is necessary to forecast the transfer volume with the study of the passenger size and characteristics of the current flow in the terminal.This paper analyzed the definition, function ,classification and various characteristics of different transport modes of a comprehensive passenger transport terminal. After studying the passenger volume generating area in a comprehensive passenger transport terminal, this paper identified the scope to attract passenger. With the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of several different transfer volume forecasting methods, this paper use the model combinating the aggregaet and disaggregate model to forecast the transfer volume for Beijing Xizhimen comprehensive passenger transport terminal with the data of 2008 Beijing Xizhimen terminal field research. The main work and conclusions are as follows:This paper provided an overview of the definition, function and passenger flow of comprehensive passenger transport terminal. The comprehensive passenger transport terminals were categoried in traffic function, the combination of different transport modes, the nature of the passenger flow, service area and geographical location. The general characteristics of transport modes were analyzed in a variety ways on the environment, resources and convenience, the cost and scope of application, etc. The individual attributes were analyzed in a variety ways on sex, age, occupation, and other aspects of the residents. The analysises of general characteristics and individual attributes of different modes laid the groundwork to select resonable factors for the transfer impedance function for the comprehensive passenger transport terminal.On the analysis of gathering effect, a influence area and a reasonable area of comprehensive passenger transport terminal, the resonable walking area and traffic area were defined.The models to forecast transfer volume for comprehensive passenger transport terminal are traffic distribution models and mode split models. Traffic distribution models (growth rate method, probability distribution model and gravity model) and mode split models (sharing the rate curve method, function model, losses minimization model and disaggregate model) were analyzed in detail in this paper. With the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of several different transfer volume forecasting methods, this paper use the model combinating the aggregaet gravity model and disaggregate MNL model to forecast the transfer volume for Beijing Xizhimen comprehensive passenger transport terminal. The transfer impedance function based on the traffic impedance function Gamma function in gravity model was set up, considering the cost of travel, convenience, comfort and speed factors.A field research was made through the questionaire and manual measurements in the Beijing Xizhimen comprehensive passenger transport terminal. The transfer volume betweent different transport modes and the ratio of different modes of Xizhimen comprehensive passenger transport terminal were analyzed in detail. The variables in the transfer impedance function were determined based on the data of Xizhimen comprehensive passenger transport terminal, and the transfer impedance function was calibrated with the statistical analysis software SPSS. The transfer volume forecasting model for Beijing Xizhimen comprehensive passenger transport terminal was calibrated and predicted with TransCAD software. Finally, with the analysis of the results of transfer volume forecasting model, the suggestions for the planning and building of Xizhimen comprehensive passenger transport terminal were given.This study showed that the transfer volume forecasting model for comprehensive passenger transport terminal that integrated aggregate and disaggregate models had good practical value, and predicted the transfer volume of different modes objectively and accurately. Several factors can be considered in this transfer volume model, the result can provide a scientific basis to construct the comprehensive passenger transport terminal. |
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