Research On Prediction For The Remising Price Of Right To The Use Of Urban Land

With the reform of the use system of land in our country being implemented and the land market becoming more normal, the remising price of urban land is close to the market price gradually. The remising ways of tender, auction and listing have been adopted widely, which strengthens the competition of the land market. So it's very important for both the government and the real estate developer to predict the remising price of urban land accurately and objectively.This thesis is to study the developing trend of the remising price of a parcel of land, and to predict the future remising price of the parcel. Based on the method of base price of land coefficient modification and combined with methods of GM(1,1) grey prediction, this thesis predicts the future remising price of urban land. In order to evaluate the land price the method of base price of land coefficient modification will modify the base price of land in terms of date, serviceable time, capacity rate and regional and individual factors. The future land price index must be obtained for date modification. So according to the time series of average land prices, this thesis intimates the developing trend of average land prices and predicts the future average land prices with GM(1,1) model, through which the future land price index can be calculated to modify the base price of land. Thus we can predict the remising price of land far in the future. To modify the base price of land according to capacity rate, this thesis establishes the relevant function between the capacity rates and land prices by regressing fit. So the coefficient of capacity rate modification can be obtained.This thesis takes the example of the prediction for the remising price of a parcel of commercial landⅦof the centre city of Tianjin. First of all, with the average land prices of commercial landⅦfrom differet quarters, we can get the prediction model through methods of grey prediction, which has fulfiled precision after test and can be used to predict the average land price. So the future land price index will be calculated. In this case the logarithm function is used to establish the relevant function between the capacity rates and land prices, then we can get the coefficient of capacity rate. Finally through modifying the base price of the centre city of Tianjin, we can predict the remising prices of the parcel at every quarter in 2008.