Research On Demand Forecast In Housing Market Of Zhenjiang City

Houses have a close relationship with human being's sustaining development, and we humankind need houses forever.In the housing market supply and demand are the two fundamental components,between which demand plays a determinative role. Houses supply exists to satisfy the demand and the demand determines relative supply both in quantity and structure.Forecasting the demand trend and capacity in the housing market of Zhenjiang city will be helpful for the government to control the development of the housing market as well as give directions about project development,market orientation and development pace to the housing suppliers.This will lead to a healthier housing industry and a steadily sustaining development of the socialistic market economy.This paper uses many theories and methods containing econometrics,statistics, consumer behavior,administration and so on to summarize the research status about housing demand forecast at home and overseas.On the basis of analyzing the historical development of housing market in Zhenjiang city,the author analyze its current development status in a systemic way and discuss the factors affecting its housing demand as well as the action mechanism of these factors on the basis of data available.After discussing the correlation between housing demand and its affecting factors by gray theory,the paper builds a short-term forecasting model in housing market of Zhenjiang city by the same theory,then the author select the regression analysis method to build a medium-term forecasting model in housing market of Zhenjiang city to forecast the demand trend and capacity of this market.Finally this paper gives some advices about the harmonious development of the housing industry and the whole economy.Summarily the paper considers that income is the most important factor affecting housing demand of Zhenjiang city,secondly comes the GDP.The level of urbanization and per capita housing area also play an important role in impacting the housing demand,but the role of population can't be observed obviously though it has a larger impact than interest rate which has the smallest correlation with housing demand.According to the current trend of housing demand in Zhenjiang city,the housing demand will keep increasing in a short term with a gradually slow growth rate.For the medium-term housing demand,quantitative houses ranging from 1.5 to 3 million square meters will be needed each year from now to 2012,and the whole demand capacity of these years adds up to about 11 million square meters showing that there is still a big space for the development of housing industry in Zhenjiang city. To maintain a modest growth of this industry the government should set long-term development plan and make full use of the land resources and social and environmental benefits should be improved throughout the development of housing industry.