Research On The Real Estate Bubbles & Early Warning And Prevention

With the advance of the housing system reform and the accelerated process of urbanization, real estate industry has been developing rapidly in recent years. However, since the proportion of development investment in real estate industry has gradually increased in recent years, especially in the major cities commercial housing prices rise rapidly in the whole, people from all lines of society begin to pay strong attention to such problems as whether the prices of houses are reasonable, whether there will be an economic bubble in real estate industry, etc. In this context, early warning and prevention research for the real estate bubble has important theoretical and practical significance。The use of empirical research combined with the norms, qualitative research combined with quantitative, static and dynamic research combined together, starting from the basic theory of the real estate bubble, based on theoretical studies for real estate bubble, whether there is a bubble in Taiyuan real estate market and how to conduct the bubble risk prevention is discussed in this article.Real estate bubble refers to the state and process of that the prices of real estate continue to rise with a track-off from its foundations value, which is the off-balance of real estate. Due to the complexity of the causes and performances of a real estate bubble and the limitations of the detection methods, this article try to judge whether there is a real estate bubble and its content through the establishment of early warning methods. The real estate market pre-warning is to reflect the basic market condition in real estate industry through a series of indicators of market characteristics, including indicators identified Weight of the indicators identified various indicators evaluation and integrated with early warning assessment.Prevention of the risk of real estate bubble will be analyzed from macro-control and industry norms. Main recommendations from the perspective of macro-control to guard the real estate bubble are: Optimize the industrial structure; Prevent international hot money flows to speculative market; timely adjustment of macro-policies, and maintain a balanced development of the economy; Strengthen financial supervision and control. Main recommendations from the perspective of industry norms are : Improve the real estate market system and market mechanism; Strictly control of land markets; Encourage construction of low-price houses and control project for high-grade supply; Develop and regulate real estate intermediation; Encourage real estate development in small and medium cities; Curb property speculation, Monitor and develop real estate finance; Conduct supervision of foreign capital; Enhance industrial concentration; Establish pre-warning and forecasting system for real estate operating .With Taiyuan real estate market as a research object, empirical research target to make current status analysis, pre-warning analysis, bubble risk analysis, and offer a number of recommendations for Taiyuan real estate bubble risk.The purpose of this essay is to prevent real estate bubble, trying to ensure sustained and healthy development for the real estate market. Through the empirical research for Taiyuan city real estate bubble, it is hoped that Taiyuan city can get some help from this essay when policies for real estate are drafted.