Research On The Evaluation Of Potential Of Emerging Technology Commercialization Based On Patent

In today's world, with the advancement of technology, several emerging technologies are coming. Faced with massive emerging technologies which are the component of technology pool, how to identify the commercial potential of emerging technologies in the theory and practice is an important problem. The scientific approach to the selection of these emerging technologies is one of the main objectives of the research.In this paper, theory, models and empirical analysis was integrated. The paper conducts the analysis of emerging technologies to determine potential for commercialization from the perspective of the patent and analysis of patent data. The paper builds up the framework of evaluation which include of four stages: First, through analysis of existing patents and the changes of the number, the paper taps the commercial potential roughly. If only a limited number of invention patents exist, it is difficult to determine the commercial potential, and it can not enter the follow-up analysis of aspect.Second, look up the Indicators of "technology cycle time," A comparative analysis of the patent text, as well as "scientific and technical information" with the analysis of technology development track, we can judge the technological stage of development. If in the early or technological infancy, it will be difficult to determine its commercial potential; if at a very rapid period of growth; through the patent methods we can explore the development trend of technology and the key points of technology. We use of technology opportunities analysis method to determine prospects for the commercialization of technology; if at maturity, we use of trend extrapolation and curve fitting methods such as Logistics to determine how long this will continue; if at sophisticated and at the aging period, there will be a deeper patent information digging, digging about "an improvement on existing technology". The purpose is to discover alternative technologies and evaluate the chances of the alternative technologies.If alternative technologies exist, can we determine the commercialization of existing technology or an alternative time, where the changes involves a technological track with "technology transition" issue. In this paper, take advantage of the "technology cycle time", the change of its curve can identify the time of alternatives to the old technology.These steps are based on the theory of the development of emerging technologies, emerging technology commercialization from the general views. Taking into account the patent for the technology-oriented commercial role, through statistical analysis of patent indicators, the paper tap the potential of the commercialization of emerging technology. The paper conducts an empirical research related to the fuel cell field, which verify the use of the evaluation framework.