Forecast And Share Of Freight Volume Of Jiu-hua Logistics Park

With the great support for development of logistics and the introduction of relevant documents raised by our country, the construction of logistics parks becomes more and more important for economic development country-widely. The reasonable planning of logistics parks is the premise of construction. Therefore, the planning of logistics parks becomes the research focus within logistics sector.Forecast and share of freight volume is the main content of Logistics Park's planning. Firstly, the author introduces the economic situation, industry status, regional superiority and logistics status of Jiu-hua Logistics Park. Then the meaning of freight volume is expounded, at the same time, the method of calculating freight volume is defined in this paper. Secondly, forecast-related theory is presented in this paper, and GM (1,1) is used to forecast the freight volume within Jiu-hua's region according to the features of historic data.Finally, the author brought forward the theory and method of sharing freight volume. SE-DEA is applied to calculate the comprehensive service capabilities of four parks. An attracted capacity-based share model of freight volume is established with the consideration of industry positioning and location advantages of Jiu-hua Logistics Park. The freight volume is shared reasonably within the four parks. Meanwhile, the freight volume is calculated in each link and the freight volume of Jiu-hua is obtained at last.