Research On Forecasting Of The Freight Volume Of Zhuzhou Jinshan Logistics Park

With the rapid development of China's economy and the popularity of e-commerce,logistics has become an indispensable part of national life.The logistics industry has also become an important driving force for the country's economic development.Logistics park,as the finished product of the rapid development of the logistics industry,is an indispensable logistics node of the entire logistics network,which is of great significance to the flow of goods and the economic development of the city.However,due to the lack of scientific decision-making and planning,most of the logistics parks in China are blindly invested in construction,resulting in waste of resources and increased costs.In order to give full play to the efficiency of logistics nodes and make reasonable use of logistics resources,the scientific planning of logistics parks has become a key issue for the sustainable development of modern logistics parks,among which the forecasting of the volume of logistics park logistics parks is the orientation and foundation for the planning and construction of logistics parks.At present,the forecasting of logistics parks is mostly limited to the improvement of forecasting methods.It has not been able to combine with regional economies,and empirical research has mostly concentrated on first-line central cities.There is less research on small and medium-sized cities.This paper analyzes and forecasts the suitable volume forecast of the Jinshan Logistics Park in Zhuzhou City.Firstly,it elaborates the related theory of forecasting the volume and quantity of the logistics park,and analyzes the development environment of the suitable volume of the Jinshan Logistics Park in Zhuzhou City.Then,a logistics park volume forecasting method was established,which was divided into three stages and forecast the suitable volume of Zhuzhou Jinshan Logistics Park: First,the division of the attraction area of Jinshan Logistics Park in Zhuzhou City and the calculation of the economic ties between Zhuzhou City and Zhuzhou City.Intensity is divided into layers,and cities in the inner circle are further evaluated for urban comprehensive strength.Breaking point formulas are used to divide the area of the area of attraction.At the same time,gravitational force models are used to measure gravitational strength and determine the proportion of the attracting traffic to the cities in the area of attraction.The freight volume forecast of the Jinshan Logistics Park in Zhuzhou City adopts a combined forecasting model based on multiple regression and grey forecasting to forecast freight volume.Thirdly,forecasting the suitable volume of Zhuzhou Jinshan Logistics Park,based on the area of the attraction area and the freight volume forecast,based on the entropy method and TOPSIS method,the comprehensive evaluation of the local related logistics nodes was performed to determine the weights,and the Zhuzhou City Jinshan Logistics Park in Zhuzhou City was calculated.The market share in China will ultimately forecast the quantity of suitable stations in the Jinshan Logistics Park of Zhuzhou City,and further analyze the traffic volume and land area of the goods in the Park.Finally,according to the forecast Zhuzhou City Jinshan Logistics Park,the scope of attraction,freight volume and station capacity,to make recommendations for the further construction of Zhuzhou City Jinshan Logistics Park.