Research On Forecasting The Freight Volume Of Xiamen Qianchang Logistics Park

Based on the needs of railway's development and the social logistics' urgency expects, developing modern logistics has already been the necessary choice for railway to adapt to the ever-changing economy, thus railway modern Logistics Park is the foundation to develop modern logistics, and it is also the important breakthrough point for railway. To bring into full play the potentials of railway logistics nodes, and actualize that railway logistics nodes do network operation, forecasting the freight volume of logistics node accurately to plan its scale has became the key issues that railway expects to develop modern Logistics Park. But at present, the research on forecasting the freight volume of logistics nodes, mostly focused on the improvement of the specific methods, constructing a complete set of methods is still rare. While this problem is the guide and foundation to construct and operate the railway modern Logistics Park, and it is the important guarantee to make railway develop well. This thesis did some research on forecasting the freight volume of Xiamen Qianchang Logistics Park in the following points.(1)This thesis discussed the concept of forecasting the freight volume of Logistics Park, and made the boundary of macro, mid and micro levels of this thesis and this thesis' research including theory base of this thesis.(2)This paper, considering the construction scale, functions, regional differences and other characteristics of a logistics park comprehensively, exploring the methods system construction for forecasting the freight volume of Logistics Park called "three-stage" method for logistics park volume forecasting.(3)Via analyzing the development of logistics of Xiamen and what economic zones it is in, considering the main 13 indices on the basis of each city's development scale, economic development level, people's living standards and area transportation condition. this thesis evaluate the overall strengths of each economic center, then analyzing the attracted area of each economic center by formula of fracture point and finally present the core attract area, extended area and radiated area.(4)On the base of attracted area of Xiamen which has been calculated, by the combined forecasting model include the model of multiple linear regression and the model of grey predict, forecasting the freight volume attracted by Xiamen's logistics hub in target years.(5)On the base of forecasting results of the freight volume attracted by Xiamen's logistics hub in target years, this thesis uses the improved grey comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the composite indicator of the four major logistics parks planned in Xiamen, forecasting the freight volume and area of Xiamen Qianchang Logistics Park in target years.