Study On Potential And Forecast Of China's Agricultural Products Export To Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is a large country in central Asia.She has 1700Kms border line with China.So it is important to trade for the country. For the moment,China is adverse balance of trade deficit.We believe it is significance to research the potential and forecast of China's agricultural products export to Kazakhstan.It is analyses 1991~2006 data of China's agricultural products export to Kazakhstan,it is clearly found that there is a increase of trade sum that China's agricultural products export to Kazakhstan just after 2000.But the sum of export trade 2006 is equal to 1994. From the sort of agricultural products export to Kazakhstan,it is a clearly variety that from mostly export grand agricultural products to gardening porduets.The mostly research of article is the potential of China's agricultural products export to Kazakhstan. The thesis seem agricultural products export as systems engineering(terminal market—intermediate logistics—advantage products—industry cooperation),it is research the potential on the key of systems engineering. It is found that the agricultural products market of Kazakhstan, hardware foundation of exporting, China's advantage agricultural products,and Intra--industry Trade of China-Kazakhstan all have potential.Base on the time series analysis-forecasting model,we conclude the trade sum forecasting data of China's agricultural products export to Kazakhstan form 2007 to 2009.From the model parameter,it is conclude that the sum of trade is exact. From the forecasting data, the trade sum of China's agricultural products export to Kazakhstan is increasing during 2007~2009, except little kind of agricultural products.In the end, base on above research,it is conclude the outcome and corresponding suggestion in this thesis.