Analysis On Export Potential Of China's Agricultural Products In Kazakhstan

As the largest country among the five countries in Central Asian,Kazakhstan has a border line of 1,770 kilometers with China.It is of great significance for both countries to trade.From the perspective of agricultural trade between the two countries,China was in a trade deficit state by and large before 2006,and then gradually turned into a surplus state after 2007.In addition,the "One Belt,One Road" initiative has provided a new opportunity for the cooperation between China and Kazakhstan.In 2017,the exports of agricultural products was 315 million dollars,and the surplus was 111 million dollars.However,China's agricultural products exporting to Kazakhstan are mainly concentrated on the two major categories,such as food and live animals and non-edible raw materials(excluding 27 and 28),so the key point of this paper is to study the potential of agricultural products which China exports to Kazakhstan,which is much more important to expand the exports of agricultural product and achieve trade balance.Firstly,this paper states the relevant studies about trade between China and Kazakhstan,analyzes the status quo of China's agricultural products exporting to Kazakhstan,finding that the agricultural products China exporting to Kazakhstan are mainly concentrated on meat products,fishery products,vegetables and fruits,sugar products and honey,and coffee and tea,cocoa seasonings,miscellaneous foods and so on.Whilethe exports of others are rare and even zero,so the structure of export commodities is not balanced.Then the demand of agricultural products in Kazakhstan is analyzed,finding that the increasing of population and per capital income,and industrial development lead to the increasing demand for agricultural products.Finally,using the stochastic frontal gravitational models,this paper studies the potential of agricultural products based on the China's data exporting to Brazil,Canada,France,Germany,India,Indonesia,Italy,Japan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Malaysia,Mexico,the Philippines,South Korea,Russia,Singapore,Thailand,the UK,the US and Vietnam from 2004 to 2017 with the help of Frontier4.1 software.The study finds that the export potential ranks 12 among the 20 major trading partners of China in 2017,being 82%.The potential of food and live animals,non-edible raw materials(excluding 27,28)is not very large,being about 60%,but there is still some development space;while the export potential of beverage and tobacco is maintained above 95%,which meas this kind of product has enormous potential for development.Through the research and analysis of the above aspects,the paper also proposes the final conclusions and corresponding suggestions.