Construction Land Demand Forecast And Potential Analysis In Harbin

With the economic development, the contradiction between supplying and demanding of land resources has caused widespread concern. Land resources couldnot be replaced and which is depended by the human survival and development. Dealing well the relationship of the resources, environment and economic growth has been a very important topic which must be resolved now. Our country has a large population, but the land is limited. The land is the carrier of population and kinds of economic factors,and the construction land is the foundation of city construction, playing a vital role in the city development process which cannot be substituted. Presently,our country is in the fast developing urbanization time,the city land use expands suddenly, and the contradictions in the supply and serious are very serious. At the same time, the problem that construction land is extensive used and idle is universal. Eleventh Five-Year Planning pointed out that: we must conserve resource and put it as a national policy and we must develop the recycling economy, protect ecological environment and friendly society, promote population and environment development. It is very necessary that studying the construction land demanding forecasting and protection analysis.The research was based on the macroscopic background of our country social economy fast development as well as the prominent microenvironment of current day by day person一land contradictory, and lessons the home and abroad relating theory.This thesis introduced the backgrounds, purpose and significances of the research, the summary of domestic and foreign research, the primary coverage, key and difficulty of the research, main methods and technological route of the research. discussed the elementary theory, make sure the concept of the construction land demand forecast, analyzed the characteristics of the construction land and elaborate the theoretical basis of the construction land demand. This thesis discussed natural condition, social condition and Harbin City construction land use characteristics, and then under the Harbin current time background, used the past ten years socio-economic statistics and construction land data, and set up GM (1,1) model and multiple linear regression model. Used the SPSS software to choose the impact factors of construction land and make sure that GDP, fixed assets investment, non-agricultural population is the main factors. According to the factors, used the GM (1,1) and multiple regression analysis model to construct the multiple linear regression prediction model of construction land demand and combinative the method of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. According to the City planning and construction of land-use structure table and City construction land per capita individual indicators tables, assess the construction land potential of Harbin city. At the same time, the article which proceeded from the point of view of the faultiness of land system of our country offered some suggestions of improving the land system for the government and relevant land administrative department. These suggestions could make sure the potentiality of town construction land excavate effectively.From the view of sustainable development, mining the construction land internal potential was the trend of the economic and intensive land use. For data limitation, policy, environment and the other variable factors which were difficult to grasp, the studying was not very fully.