Study On The Ecosystem Carrying Capacity Of "Chang Zhu Tan 3+5" Cities

The ecological environment is the fundament of mankind subsistence and soci-economic growth. Urban agglomeration as the social organism which composed by production intensification and diversification of economy, promoted the people and industries gathering toward the city, improved the people's living level. However, it also played an important role in consuming the resource. Ecological disturbance,environment pollution,water and soil loss,exhaustion of resources and so on have been caused by the shortage of natural resources against the limitless of human needs. In 2006, the rate of "chang-zhu-tan 3+5"cities' urbanization and industrialization have reached 40.84% and 44.16%, which means that "chang-zhu-tan 3+5"cities are in the period of highly speed of urbanization and industrialization. On the Decl4th 2007, the State Development and Reform Commission has authorized the "chang-zhu-tan" cities to be the experimental area for building a conservation-minded and eco-friendly society. So, how to balance the relationship between economic development and environmental protection is an increasingly important issue that we must focus on. Base on this, the concept of Urban Agglomeration Ecosystem Carrying Capacity (UAECC) is introduced as a measuring index in this article to decide whether the behavior of human under the ecosystem support threshold.An estimation model of UAECC has been established in accordance with the Ecological Footprint theory. And investigation was made on "chang-zhu-tan3+5" cities from the year 1997 to 2006. Research indicates that the Ecosystem Carrying Capacity (ECC) of this area kept being in deficit during the investigative period, with the deficit of average ECC increasing from 0.22306137hm~2 in 1997 to 0.53976039 hm~2 in 2006, which has grown nearly 140% in ten years. Moreover, there is tendency that the increasing of ecological deficit has been accelerating since 2002.With the method of Factor Analysis, relative analysis was made of the nine factors on the ECC of "chang-zhu-tan3+5" cities, mostly including average GDP,Population,Newly Increased Fixed Assets,the Rate of Urbanization,Proportion of Secondary Industry,Percentage of Industrial Waste Water up to the Standards for Discharge,Percentage of Solid Wastes Utilized,Volume of Passenger Traffic,Average Cultivated Area etc. The result shows that the Proportion of Secondary Industry,Volume of Passenger Traffic and Newly Increased Fixed Assets present a relatively remarkable effect on the demand of ECC, while the Average Cultivated Area,Percentage of Industrial Waste Water up to the Standards for Discharge and Percentage of Solid Wastes Utilized on the supply of ECC.According to the analysis above, series of politics and measures in resource use and environment protect,take a new road to industrialization,build territorial rail rapid transit system,all-in-one of cities' infrastructure construction,complete regulations and early warning of the ecological security were emphasized to enhance the ECC of the "chang-zhu-tan3+5" cities.