| The land is the material base for the human's survival and development, and irreplaceable means of production of urban and rural economic development. The rational land utilization of urban and rural directly concerns the sustainable development of regional economies. In terms of balancing urban and rural development, land policy directly concerns regional economic scale, developing level and position of urban and rural. As a result, the study on the controlling land utilization scale of urban and rural, the optimization of structure and arrangement of urban and rural building land and scientifically actually land utilization prediction in time, have a magnitude for balancing urban and rural development, utilizing land frugally and intensively, practically raising social benefit, economic benefit, environment benefit, and scientificalness and timeliness of the policy of land supply.This paper is based on the 11years' changed data from 1997 to 2007 in Changsha and analyzes in depth the changing condition of 11 years' land use structure in Changsha by the change in value of land utilization and the rate pattern of land changing. It's perceptible that Changsha's arable land has reduced substantially in recent years, building land largely increasing and the land use structure nonagricultural. Then according to Changsha's social and economic statistics over the years, it analyzes the driving force influencing Changsha's land, especially the building land, of which total output value of GDP, investment in the fixed assets, total industrial output value and population growth sit heavily on building land, and the related coefficients with building land are 0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97.Finally, the paper respectively forecasts Changsha's arable land and building land by trend-based forecasting and regression analysis and gets the reliability model within the error band, on the basis of which the proposals and measures of Changsha's arrangement optimization are put forward. |
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