Analysis And Countermeasure Of Sustained Growth On Peasant Income In Jinan City

In this paper, for the fact of long-term response to the peasants in our country is low and unstable income, an increase of the difficulties of reality, we choose to study in Jinan City. The purpose is discussing the effective way to make peasants continued to explore and safeguard mechanism. We are using system theory, rural sociology and agricultural economics as a guide, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis as the methods, to analyze some issues of reform and opening up 30 years in Jinan like changes of the income of the farmers and its constraints, current status of the income of the farmers of the favorable, unfavorable growth factors, and so on. Based on this, we work out practical models and policies for the development of safeguard in line with the Jinan City ,by the principle of balance of economic, social and ecological benefits. Conclusions of the study are as follows:1) Since reform and opening up, there are many dramatically changes on income of the farmers of Jinan City. The per capita income from 110.5 Yuan in 1978 to 6,300 Yuan in 2007.The overall average standard of living of the basic access to a well-off. By the use of the Engel's coefficient to measure, the survey points (Zhang qiu City text ancestral town) have 24.7 percent of households have access to well-off ,28.0 percent enter the well-off , 41.0 percent have food and clothing for farmers in the stage, as well as 6.3% of farmers still in the stage of poverty. Recalling the history of the development of the income of the farmers, the growth rate showed a clear phase, that is, fast, slow, fast, slow and then fast . We have an in-depth analysis on the impact of income growth rate of the reasons .We established the combining ARIMA model by the use of autoregressive and moving average method, and forecast the future earnings of the Jinan City .2) The peasants' current incoming situation and formation were deeply analysised. The result indicated that the whole city peasants' income structure has already displayed a diversified patterns: Salary income accounts for 42.0%, and the second and the third industry accounts for 16.5%, although the agriculture only accounts for 33.4%. The gap plays immensity between the peasants in the same area. In the inquiring locus (Chang Qi section , Shuang Quan village in Jinan province) , the ratio of income between 7.6% of the maximal group and 3.5% of the minimum group reached 10.7 to 1. the Geordie modulus reaches for 0.405. There is 3.5% peasant in the town unerring the poverty line still. It indicated that it has covered the inside difference with the data counting averagely to come to express the income horizontal. The income gap in the peasant and the city and town dwell is also bigger.3)It seeks out seven factors that advance boosting the peasants' income: enhancement national economy increases rapidly; stimulating the favorable peasants policy; moving overall agricultural productivity improves; Spurring on industrial restructuring optimizes; putting into effect urbanizing strategy and promoting boosting a labor force changing; Agriculture science, technology and education cause develop rapidly and their unceasingly perfect guarantee of rural area social undertaking effects. The growing unfavorable factors restricting and affecting the peasants' income just as follows:Per capita agricultural resource occupies amounts low; Agriculture industrial restructuring block of science; Disperse producing restraint putting to use in production , standardize the development managing in miniature; Agricultural infrastructure weak and block productivity improvement; Finance supports agriculture throwing into low but unsteady , that parallel beneficial result of agricultural output affects the peasant enthusiasm for production low,; Agriculture technology transfer system serves a function not arriving at a place; Labor force overall quality insists to hang down , inadaptable modern agriculture develops need; The dual structure in urban and rural economy existence, surplus rural labor laborers changes difficulty waiting.4)In the basis of analysis of clear laws of development and changes in the income of the farmers and the causal relationship,discussion and Work out to promote the city's farmers continued to increase should take,there are eight approach,such as three directions of steady increase in material input, rely on scientific and technological progress and industrialization of agriculture,regional advantages and optimize the industrial layout,nurture agriculture,intensive processing of agricultural products and brand characteristics,flower seed and modern logistics: the establishment and improvement of six safeguard mechanism on farmers continued to increase: protection mechanism benign on industrial management of agriculture development, long-term investment system to promote agricultural and rural to urban, long-lasting protection mechanism of agriculture through science and education, long-term regulatory mechanism of reduce the burden on farmers, long-term development strategy of change the urban-rural dual structure, mechanism for organization and leadership on good attention to "three rural" work.Besides, point out that the realization of farmers continued to increase is a Long-term, arduous and complicated systematic project,and relate to Economic, political, cultural and so on ,but should stand on Strategic perspective of the scientific concept of development and adhere to coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and the way of using a variety of measures and keep a multi-pronged, sustained method is needed。...