The Study Of Bubble Evaluation System Of Real Estate Market In Chinese Cities

Real estate bubble is the sustainable grows of real estate's price that deviates from the intrinsic value caused by speculation and other factors. The evaluation of real estate bubble extent is to reflect the bubble by deviation between price and value so as to provide basis of avoiding bubble's expansion and promoting healthy development of cities' real estate market.There are four chapters in this paper. The first chapter is about the background and significance of this study, present research review, frame and main content of the paper. The second chapter selects the evaluation indicators of real estate bubble extent, and sets up the evaluation model of real estate bubble extent. The third chapter is the empirical study of 35 big and moderate cities in China. The fourth chapter analyzes the evaluation results as well as provides suggestions to promote healthy development of real estate market. And the last part is the conclusions.The main work of this paper is shown as follows: firstly, sets up the evaluation indicator system of real estate bubble extent in cities; secondly, establishes the evaluation model by using AHM to weight each indicator, using the ratio between indicator data and bubble threshold to determine single indicator's bubble index and using Ward cluster to judge the general bubble extent; thirdly, through the empirical study of 35 big and moderate cities in China, it finds that real estate bubble is widespread in Chinese cities and there are significant differences in the extent and manifestation of bubble between different cities.The main special and contribution of this paper is shown as follows: firstly, builds real estate bubble extent evaluation indicator system to avoid the flaw that can't reflect the city real estate market's full view caused by single indicator evaluation; secondly, uses AHM to weight each indicator to reflect the experts' knowledge and experience which both embodies the true importance of each indicator and the characteristics of Chinese emerging market. Thirdly, uses Ward cluster to classify cities according to general weighted bubble index, so as to reveal the significant difference between different cities' real estate bubble and provide basis to judge cities' real estate bubble extent.