Research On The Forecasting Model Of Energy-saving Potentials In Industry Enterprises

China's "Eleventh Five-Year" plan proposed to achieve the target of decreasing energy intensity by 20% in 2010 compared with 2005. This is a binding target to be completed. In China, energy conservation has been an important part of thoroughly implementing the scientific concept of development and accelerating the construction of conservation-oriented society. In China, industrial energy consumption accounted for nearly 70%. However, the existing research of energy-saving potentials put more emphasis on qualitative analysis rather than the quantitative analysis. This makes the use of energy policy instruments inconvenient for the government. Meanwhile, industrial enterprises can not carry out a scientific energy management activities. Scientific forecasting of the future industry enterprises'energy-saving potentials is an important basis for developing energy-saving policies of industrial enterprises, and is also the important data to support of the guides to energy-saving management of industrial enterprises.This paper, focusing on the application needs, based on gray system theory, applied the gray model to construct the forecasting model, and the main research work include:(1)Through literature review, this paper summarized the current major prediction methods and tools of energy-saving potentials, and analyzed advantage of gray system theory applied to predict the energy-saving potentials.(2)Based on the gray prediction and gray model, this paper proposed the revised analysis of the base model-MGM(l,n). Firstly, by modifying the model inputs the influences of energy-saving policies of industrial enterprises were taken into account; Secondly, applying the gray correlation analysis, this paper thought over the advanced levels of energy conservation, and this made the reference to company's comparative analysis of the problem feasible.(3)This paper making use of the production data from 1999 to 2006 of a leather production company, by using the Matlab7 application software, analyzed the results of the GM(1,1)and the MGM(l,n).The conclusions showed the reliability and superiority of the revised MGM (1,n).