Dynamic Analysis On The Vulnerability Of Human-earth System Of Fuxin:1990～2006

This article chose FuXin city as a case study area and analyzed the dynamic changes of vulnerability of its human-earth system during the period between 1990 and 2006. The body of this paper included the following parts:Firstly, the paper generalized the main ideas and progress of the relevant researches on the vulnerability, especially about the human-earth system vulnerability. Then the research methods, the index system and the date resources were fixed.Secondly, the author described the current development situation of Fuxin city and the reflection of vulnerability form the perspective of economic system, the social system and the ecological system.Based on the former analysis, the paper made an evaluation of vulnerability of FuXin's human-earth system between 1990 and 2006 thirdly. After illustrating the fundamental principle of evaluating the vulnerability, the paper made an integrated evaluation of vulnerability of Fuxin's human-earth system which consists of economic system, social system and ecological system. According to the basic attributes of vulnerability which includes the sensitivity and adaptation, an integrated index system were built so as to make an evaluation of each system. The indexes mainly derives from two aspects of sensitive and adaptive factors, which is 3&11 in economic system, 3&10 in social system and 3&7 in ecological system. The author selected the Entropy Method and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) to determine the weights of various indexes to make quantitative analysis hence the qualitative analysis. The results showed that the whole process of dynamic changes of vulnerability of Fuxin could be divided into three stages: between 1990 and 1994, the level of human-earth system vulnerability was high, mainly because of the high sensitive economic system. Between 1995-1999, with the descending sensitivity level and ascending adaptation level, the whole level of vulnerability is descending. From 2000 to 2006, the vulnerability level declined considerably, which were mainly determined by the high growth of adaptation level in spite of some perturbation of the economic system. In general, the whole trend of human-earth system of FuXin was on a declining curve.Finally, the main conclusions were drawn and some suggestions on sustainable development of FuXin's human-earth system were also pointed out.